The Super Bowl has become one of the most watched sporting events in the world each year, attracting mainstream as well as online sportsbook users from all over the world.
With the new year already started, it’s a good time to look at how you can make the best of the betting trends and strategies surrounding this annual event.
There are several indicators you can follow to get the best results when betting on the Super Bowl. To put it simply, you want to be doing the opposite of what the majority of the money is on, and taking the opposite side of the betting lines, especially early in the game when the action is relatively low.
Here’s how you can make the best of the Super Bowl trends and strategies.
Be Inspired By The Past
One way to make the most of the betting trends surrounding the Super Bowl is to study the history of the matchup. You can use tools like Google Trends to easily find historical data on every NFL game, going all the way back to 1898. All you have to do is enter the date, time, and matchup, and you’ll see all the search interest surrounding that game.
You can use this historical perspective to your advantage. For example, you can bet on the underdog when the game is played later in the season, as the past five Super Bowls have shown. You’ll want to avoid this matchup if you’re ahead in the betting or if the game is played in the early season.
This data can also help you determine the best times of day to place bets on the Super Bowl. One common trend is to place bigger bets on the game later in the day, which is traditionally associated with sportsbooks as the evening new, TV time, and game time become more natural logics as the days go on. So if it’s a Monday night game and you’re at a sportsbook, there’s a decent chance you’ll see bigger action as the day wears on.
Avoid Market Leaps
One of the biggest risks you take when placing a Super Bowl bet is jumping on the bandwagon too soon. This is where having knowledge of sports history can help. If you’ve ever followed the stock market, you know that trends can quickly reverse direction. Something as popular as the Super Bowl can become less attractive as more and more people jump on the bandwagon, creating liquidity and sending prices soaring.
A better approach is to study the historical trends and formations of the game. For example, from 2006 to 2016, the Super Bowl was typically won by the defense. So if you’re a fan of the underdog, you might consider backing the defense in the upcoming Super Bowl.
Then there’s the other side of the coin. If you like the popular team, you might consider going against the grain and backing the underdog in this year’s Super Bowl.
Know The Odds And Line Movement
When you place a wager on the Super Bowl each year, you need to make sure you’re doing so with the odds in mind. Fortunately, you have several options when it comes to getting the latest odds. You can check the vast array of online bookmakers offering football odds, or you can contact traditional sportsbooks and ask them for the odds. Either way, make sure you do so before you place your bet.
Knowing the odds of a game can help you get the best possible return on your investment. For example, if you’re at a bookmaker and need to pick whether the New England Patriots will beat the Los Angeles Rams, you might want to consider backing the underdogs at one of the smaller bookmakers, as the line is likely to move in their favor. Alternatively, if you’re looking to bet on the Rams, it might be smart to check the smaller bookmakers first to see if they’re agreeing with the bigger online odds makers.
One more thing to keep in mind when it comes to the Super Bowl is the line movement. This is the difference between the accepted odds and the odds that can be won or lost by betting on the game. Most sportsbooks will provide this number for you so you can easily find out the amount you stand to win or lose. It can be a little tricky to calculate this number exactly, so make sure you’re doing so with probability in mind.
Use Betting Strategies
One of the things that can help you make the best of the Super Bowl trends and strategies is simply proper planning. If you follow the general advice around the internet, you’ll see dozens of articles that share betting strategies for the popular sport. Here’s a small selection of our favorites, which can help you make the most of this annual sporting event.
Under 2.5 Goals
If you’re reading this, it’s probably safe to assume you’re a fan of the underdogs. This year’s Super Bowl sees the Los Angeles Rams taking on the New England Patriots, who are currently 4-point underdogs according to the majority of bookmakers. If you check the lines in some smaller betting establishments, you’ll see the Patriots favored by two or three points. This suggests there’s plenty of value in betting against the grain in this year’s Super Bowl.
Another popular trend in the betting markets surrounding the Super Bowl is an under 2.5 goals spread. This is when the betting is split evenly between the two teams, with most bookmakers offering the matchup at over or under two and a half goals. In other words, if you’re getting the odds, you’ll want to make sure your chosen team is within two and a half goals of the other side.
Under 7.0 PPG
The biggest game of the year is traditionally played in the winter, so it’s no surprise that most sportsbooks take the winter off. This year’s Super Bowl is an exception, with most bookmakers open for business as usual, despite the fact that it’s summertime.
One trend that has emerged, however, is that oddsmakers are discounting the underdogs even more than usual. The majority of bookmakers are offering the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots at 7 units each, with some smaller books even taking the matchup off their books entirely.
Dontbet On Home Field
As tempting as it can be to bet on your favorite team, don’t do it. Most sportsbooks will be the home team’s advantage if you’re in Boston, or any other sportsbook’s advantage if you’re in Los Angeles or other California cities. The only advantage this could potentially give you is seeing the lower odds should your team win. In the end, you might not like the odds that are posted for your team anyway, so it’s better to avoid this altogether.
The bottom line is that the Super Bowl is widely seen as the best game of the year, and with so much at stake, it’s a great opportunity to make some money. Just remember to avoid the above pitfalls, and you’ll be able to enjoy this annual sporting event, as much as possible, and put some money in your pocket.