The Atlanta Falcons are taking on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 of the NFL season. The over/under for the game is set at 6.5, with the line currently resting at 5 D/A at SportsbookReview.com. What are people betting on? Let’s take a look.
How To Gamble Responsibly
It’s important to note that you should only gamble what you can afford to lose. If you’re looking to place a large wager on a sports game, make sure that you’re prepared to lose some of that money. The key to safe and profitable gambling is to understand the basics of probability and statistics.
These two factors determine the likelyhood of an event occurring. For example, if you were to bet on an under/over score for a college football game, and you’re applying this formula at sportsbooks, you’d put the odds of the under team winning at 4 to 1. If you wanted to make some money off this wager, you’d have to bet $100 to win $100, which in this case would be a 100% return on investment.
However, if you were to bet on a double-digit point spread, you’d be giving the 49ers the advantage of playing at home, as well as having more experience on the season, and these two factors give them a slight advantage in the series historically speaking. If you’re looking to risk $500, it’s probably not the best idea to place the bet on the under/over score. This is the main concept behind safe and profitable gambling. Calculate the odds of winning or losing the bet, then only bet what you can afford to lose. It’s simple, but it’s vitally important.
Sportsbooks And Odds Converting To Moneyline
Now that you’re aware of the importance of applying basic probability and statistics to your wagers, let’s take a look at how bookmakers and odds providers are setting this week’s games. Typically, books and odds makers will use a moneyline to determine the payout for each betting option. This is a very popular way of calculating odds because it’s easy for the layman to understand, and since it’s all done in units of money, it makes comparing the odds of different outcomes easy. Here’s an example using two teams who are currently -3.5 at the time of writing this article:
- Atlanta Falcons
- San Francisco 49ers
If you were to bet $100 on the Atlanta Falcons, and $100 on the San Francisco 49ers, you’d get a payout of $175 to win $100. In this case, the payout would be a +175 return on investment.
If you instead wager $150 on the under/over score, you’d receive a payout of either $225 or $125, based on whether the under or over scored, respectively. The risk in this particular wager is dramatically increased due to the size of the bet.
In the first two examples above, the moneyline odds are not all that dissimilar. However, it’s important to note the nuances in how they are calculated. The moneyline odds in the third example represent the over/under score for the game. The fourth example is an illustration of the risk involved with the under/over score. Once you know how these different types of odds work, you’ll have a better understanding of why they are the way they are. Here’s an example of three more teams, all currently sporting -3.5 odds:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Tennessee Titans
If you were to bet $100 on the Arizona Cardinals, and $100 on the Philadelphia Eagles, you’d receive a payout of either $175 or $125, based on whether your team won or lost, respectively. In this case, the payout would be a +175 return on investment.
If you instead wager $150 on the under/over score, you’d receive a payout of either $225 or $125, based on whether your team won or lost. The risk in this particular wager is also increased dramatically, due to the size of the bet.
As you might imagine, placing larger wagers on a double-digit spread or moneyline leads to higher returns. These types of wagers are less risky than placing a bet on the under/over score, as the former offers higher chances of winning. However, if you’re looking for a safer, yet more lucrative wager, the moneyline is where you should focus your attention. Also, bear in mind that the larger the bet, the greater the advantage of the home team. For these reasons, the moneyline is the optimal choice for a high-volume, low-risk wager.
Where Do The Moneylines Stand Now?
With all that history behind us, let’s jump ahead to this year’s playoffs and see how teams are performing and where the public is putting their money. According to SportsbookReview.com, as of mid-October the top of the food chain stands at -115, while the bottom of the heap is at +105 on the Atlanta Falcons, and at +105 on the San Francisco 49ers. These are some pretty incredible spreads, but keep in mind that the public does not always bet the most competitive games. Every week is not a winner, and this is especially true in the playoffs. This is when the money tends to flow, and these low totals are likely the result of many people taking a pass on the game. Remember, a double-digit spread or moneyline wager isn’t for everyone. Some people prefer to stick to the more traditional under/over score, where an exact prediction is much more likely. Nonetheless, for a home game, these spreads and moneylines are staggering. It’s quite an advantage for the visiting team to be in San Francisco when playing against the Atlanta Falcons. For the time being, these are the best available odds, so be sure to take advantage of them while you can.