How to Predict NFL Lines Movements

Predicting NFL lines movements is a challenging task, and for good reason. It’s a guessing game when it comes to picking the outcome of NFL games. There are just so many variables that could affect the final score of a game. But with a little bit of preparation and research, you can greatly improve your chances of successfully picking NFL game lines.

Study The Trend

Looking at the historical trends of previous NFL games should be a good place to start when making predictions. It’s always useful to know the outcome of previous matchups so you can properly prepare for the upcoming game. This is especially important if the teams are located in different divisions or if they play each other frequently. One of the best strategies for picking NFL game lines is to examine the previous results of the teams involved and use that data to make predictions for the upcoming game. For example, if you look at the history of the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers, you will see that the two teams have played a total of 21 times with the Colts winning 10 times and the Chargers winning 11 games. According to the trends, the Chargers are 5.5-point favorites (55) in this week’s matchup between the two teams.

Divisional Clashes

Another important factor that needs to be considered when picking NFL game lines is the rivalry between the teams in the same division. The New England Patriots and New York Jets meet in a highly competitive AFC East division, and the rivalry is taken very seriously by the football-loving fans in both cities. Although it is difficult to predict the outcome of these games due to the incredible talent and depth both teams possess, a clear trend can be seen. The Patriots are 12-point favorites (120) in this matchup, which will be held at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Location, Location, Location

The location of a game can greatly affect the outcome, and this is especially true for NFL games. While there is no direct line between where a team plays and their records, there are several factors that need to be considered. First of all, playing in a football-friendly environment will certainly help a team perform better. In recent years, the NFL has become much more successful at selling out their games, and this is mostly thanks to the teams that play in attractive stadiums such as Heinz Field (Pittsburgh Steelers), Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis Colts), and Ford Field (Detroit Lions). Not only will these venues attract large audiences, but they will also increase the likelihood of a team winning a game. Aside from the fact that these stadiums are located in large cities, there is also the ripple effect of having a team in a city with a large African-American population. For example, the Chicago Bears play in the NFC North division, and the division is arguably the weakest of the four. However, having a team in Chicago will surely contribute to the overall success of the Bears, and it’s not hard to see why. There is a large pool of potential fans who may not have given football a try in the past, and the addition of the Bears may help to increase the popularity of the sport in a city that is home to over 20 million people.

Vegas Vs. The Spread

As previously stated, picking NFL game lines is a guessing game, and this is reflected in the betting lines. The spread generally ranges from -3.5 points to 3.5 points, and in most cases, the betting public is largely optimistic about the outcome of a game. Generally speaking, a team will score about 15 points more than their average point differential in an NFL game. So if you’re betting on the over (over), you’re pretty much assuming that the spread will be in the positive range. This means that the betting public has a clear tendency to believe that the over will win.

Paying Attention To Stats

One of the best ways of predicting the future is by observing the past. This is particularly relevant when it comes to NFL lines movements, and this is because teams tend to have similar stats profiles at the end of the year as they did at the beginning. Take a look at the 2017 Pittsburgh Steelers team for example. The Steelers had a 13-3 record at the end of the regular season and looked like an excellent bet to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. However, after winning their first four games in the playoffs, they went 5-6 and were eliminated from the playoffs. In the case of the Dallas Cowboys, their regular season record of 11-5 turned into an unimpressive 6-10 playoff record. So for those hoping for a run at the Super Bowl, early exits are becoming a recurring theme. This is why it’s important to study the past and look at what happened in previous games so you can properly prepare for the upcoming contests.

Picking Against The Spread

An alternative strategy to picking on the over is to choose the under. For those hoping for a team to perform poorly, betting on the under can be a great way to make money as the public is generally more pessimistic about the outcome of a game than they are about the over. Conversely, if you believe that a team will perform well, the under can be an excellent choice because you will be compensated for your bet. For those looking to bet on the under, it’s important to note that the line will generally move in the opposite direction of the spread. This means that if one expects a blowout, one should choose the over. On the flip side, if you believe that the game will be close, the under can be an excellent choice as the lines often move in the direction of the spread (generally speaking). So if you’re looking to bet on the under, one should expect that the spread will be closer to zero than 3.5 points.

Which Game Will Be The Most Competitive?

As previously stated, NFL lines movements are a difficult task to accurately predict. It really is a matter of what you’re looking for in a particular game. If you want to bet on the spread, then betting on the 49ers +3.5 in their matchup against the Eagles is probably your best bet. The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most iconic franchises in NFL history, and in 2017, they made it to the NFC Championship game before getting upset by the eventual Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. One of the reasons for the 49ers’ success is due to their incredible defensive line. Using a combination of talent and smarts, the defenders in the black and orange are capable of putting a hurting on an opponent. In fact, they are so dangerous that at any point during the game, fans are likely to see a defensive tackle put a hit on an opposing quarterback. For those looking for an action-packed game, the 49ers -3.5 road win against the visiting Atlanta Falcons is worth a flier. The game features one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports, and it’s always one of the most exciting games each season. With the 49ers’ success throughout the years, there is no reason to believe that their dominance won’t continue this season as well.

Final Word

While there is a lot to consider when picking NFL lines movements, it’s not exactly an easy task. One of the best ways to improve your odds of picking up a win is by following the above-mentioned guidelines. It’s always useful to look at the trends for previous games so you can properly prepare for the upcoming matchup. The location of a game will greatly affect the outcome, so knowing the venue can be crucial. Studying the stats and knowing what happened in previous competitions is key to properly evaluating the competitors in today’s NFL. Last but not least, it’s important to stay mentally prepared because no matter what, it’s a game and it’s on the line. So even if you’ve watched the same game 100 times in a row, you still need to get up and cheer on your favorite team!