The lines can change quickly in sports betting, and the same goes for game-day events.
Based on the odds, one would assume that the game between the New York Jets and Chicago Bears in Week 14 of the NFL season would be a defensive struggle. But the game turned out to be one of the most exciting games of the season, with the Bears defeating the Jets 51-49 on a last-minute TD pass from Mitchell Trubisky to Taylor Gabriel.
This was a shocker to most people, given that the Jets were a 3.5-point favorite in this game, the line moved up half a point within 24 hours of kick-off, and most pundits agreed that this game would be a defensive struggle.
Although we might be tempted to chalk up this result to chance, there is actually a method to the madness. According to mathematician Hyun Choon Son, the probabilities behind nearly any sports wager can be calculated using tools that are now available to the general public. These tools allow anyone to perform precise analyses of sports betting trends and follow them carefully, using basic Excel or Google Sheets.
Chasing Trends
Modern sports betting algorithms analyze data from multiple sports books and odds compilers to determine the most likely outcome of a given game or contest. The better the analysis, the more successful the bettor. A good trend-chaser might win 10% of their bets, but they could also lose more than 20% of their wagers, because there is so much competition in the market and because the house edge is so high.
The theory behind this approach is simple. Most people who bet on sports become addicted to winning, and the fact is that the majority of winning wagers are the result of good luck, rather than skill. Given the right conditions, however, a skilled sports bettor can actually improve their win percentage.
This is precisely what happens when a skilled sports bettor follows sports betting trends, and it is a guaranteed way to make money, no matter what sport or event you are betting on. For example, during the 2014 World Cup, German national team striker Miroslav Klose dominated the entire tournament, scoring 11 goals, yet he only won one out of every five games that he played in. This means that, on average, he won 44% of his bets during the 2014 World Cup.
Even with this impressive winning percentage, Klose actually lost money during the 2014 World Cup, because he took a large number of bad bets, due to the fact that many sportsbooks didn’t have very good odds for Germany in the first place. The bookmakers were wrong, of course, but they weren’t all wrong – at least, not according to the trend-chasing algorithm that estimates win percentages on the basis of historical data.
In the NFL, it is easy to identify game situations where the line is extremely favorable or unfavorable to the favorite. There is also a wide variety of games, because the NFL is one of the most popular sports leagues in the world. This offers a great deal of data for the mathematical sports handicapper to work with, and it makes for exciting sports betting.
Money Management
Another important factor to consider when analyzing sports betting is money management. Simply put, when you make a wager on a game that you think is close to a push, you should walk away, because even the best handicapper in the world won’t be able to give you a clear picture of how the game is going to turn out.
Tired of hearing this from multiple sources, Money Management experts make sure that you understand the importance of limit management when betting on sports. By placing a limit on how much you are willing to wager, you are setting a hard and fast rule for yourself, which will help you avoid some of the more obvious pitfalls that some people fall into, when playing with money that they don’t actually have.
For example, if you set a limit of $100 on a $1000 bet, you are going to be much more careful about how you spend your money. Although this might not sound like a big deal, it can be if you are not careful, especially if you are new to gambling. When you set limits on your bets, you are in effect telling the bookmaker that you are a responsible person who isn’t going to risk more than X amount of money on one bet.
In some cases, a responsible person might not even place a wager of any kind. Setting a hard limit is an effective tool for avoiding certain bets altogether. In general, it is a good idea to limit how much you are wagering, especially if the game is distant from being over/under. Trying to get a read on the game, when it is still in doubt, is a losing proposition for someone who is just getting started. Additionally, if you are going to place a wager on sports, it is usually a good idea to set aside some money for bad losses – this way, you won’t have to keep coming back for more. Finally, it is always a good idea to use a money manager, especially if you are new to betting. A skilled MM can help keep you from putting all your eggs in one basket, by placing side bets or walking away when the line moves in the wrong direction.
These tips should help you win money, regardless of whether you are a professional sports bettor or a casual fan. By applying a little bit of common sense and some basic math, you can surely turn the odds in your favor.