If you’re new to betting or just want to learn more, you’ve come to the right place. Below, you’ll find everything you need to know about predicting the outcome of soccer games using predictive key betting (PK betting for short).
What Is It?
If you’ve ever taken an economics or business class, you might have heard of PK betting. Basically, predictive key betting is a type of sports wagering that focuses on providing accurate sports predictions rather than just winning bets. As its name suggests, PK betting uses the principles of predictive analytics to make its predictions. This form of sports betting analyzes and predicts the outcome of a sporting event based on statistical and objective information. While traditional sports betting usually involves making a bet on the outcome of a game, with PK betting, you make an investment in the performance of an individual player or a team. Essentially, you’re placing a wager on the future behavior of the people behind the scenes taking the field or participating in a sport.
How Does It Work?
In a traditional betsportspk bet, for instance, you might place a bet on whether Barcelona will score more or fewer goals in the upcoming match against Villareal. In a parlance that bettors might find familiar, you’re placing a bet on the outcome of the match (the score). The odds of this particular match being a goal-fest are, in this case, very high because Barcelona is currently riding a seven-game winning streak and has one of the best attack-minded strikers in the business in the form of Lionel Messi. So, if we were to take your bet, we would need to pay out at a 7–1 rate to cover our expenses.
In a predictive key betting scenario, the bettor (you) makes an investment in the skills or actions of a group of people (the selected player) who have the ability to score or stop scoring goals based on the action of a sport (e.g., football, basketball, etc.). In return, you get a payoff based on the outcome of the game (the score). For instance, if you were to invest $100 on Barcelona, you would earn $700 if they score three goals and $300 if they score one goal.
To get the best possible return on your investment, you need to select players who have the greatest degree of correlation with the goal differential (the difference between the number of goals scored and goals conceded by a team). If we were doing this for a living, we might use an algorithm or model to find the best possible combinations of players who are most likely to score or prevent goals based on the performance of the teams they’re paired with and the type of match (e.g., exhibition, league, etc.).
How Many Goals Will Each Team Score?
The first step in understanding PK betting is to determine how many goals each team will score. This is called the quantitative part of the analysis and relies on some basic principles of probability. For example, if you predict that Barcelona will score three goals, then you’re essentially taking a long shot because the odds of them scoring exactly three goals in this particular matchup are extremely low. This is known as a back-test and is used to prevent excessive loss due to extreme long shots. As mentioned above, if we were doing this for a living, we may use a model or algorithm to determine the most likely goal totals for each team.
How Many Goals Will The Match End Up Being?
Once you know how many goals each team will score, you can move on to the next step which is determining how many goals the match will end up being. This is called the qualitative part of the analysis and relies on some common sense and our own personal experience. For instance, nobody really expects a 0–0 draw, so if you predict that this will happen, you’re probably going to end up winning your bet. This step is very important because without it, you may end up with an unbalanced score that doesn’t accurately reflect the true strength of each team. If you used our previous example about Barcelona and Villareal, as soon as you make the decision to take on the Barca – Villareal match, you need to set the goal differential to be zero because you don’t want to risk getting a minus score if Barcelona doesn’t score a single goal.
As you can see, using predictive key betting is very systematic and can be fully adjusted or repeated as often as needed. You may need to make some tweaks to fit your particular preferences, but within reason, the process is very similar every time you use it. To start off, you’ll need to do some research and determine how to quantify the impact players and teams have on the outcome of a game. Once you do that, you can begin to construct your bets and wait for the matches to get posted so you can follow the results.