# How to Pick Winning Football Picks with the Picking Boxes

When it comes to wagering on sports, the main question is: how can I pick winners? There is plenty of information out there on which players are hot or cold, but sometimes you just need a little help figuring out which teams will beat the spread.

Thanks to the innovation of statistical modeling and the widespread adoption of smart phones, today’s sportsbooks offer an entire toolkit that can help you efficiently pick winning teams and players. You may be familiar with the concept of picking winning teams with parlays or teasers, but did you know that you can also use betting odds to find winning picks?

In this article, we will discuss how to use these tools in combination with one another to create winning betting picks according to various formats, such as NFL and NCAA football.

## Best Tools For Calculating Probability

Probability is at the heart of everything in life, including sports betting. This number reflects the likelihood that something will occur. For example, if you bet on a game and the spread is 10 points, then the probability of your team winning is 90 percent (10/11). In most cases, you will need to determine the probability of an event occurring using mathematical formulas or software. There are two primary tools which are widely adopted and trusted by sports bettors: the random number generator (RNG) and Bayesian statistics.

RNGs are used to determine a set of numbers which are then used to represent a probability. You may have used an RNG to generate random numbers in a game of chance, like roulette or slots. These devices are extremely useful in calculating the probability of an event occurring, such as a roll of the dice or spin of a slot machine. The number generated by an RNG is usually between zero and one, with zero representing complete uncertainty and one representing perfect certainty. For example, if you bet on the Super Bowl and the total is 42 (zero multiplied by two), you can be sure that your team will win.

Bayesian statistics is a model developed by English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the 18th century to calculate the likelihood of an event occurring. This model was widely used and accepted until around 1905 when a Swedish mathematician named Ernst Walden proposed a new way of calculating probability which was later named after him: the Walden Method. Since then, Bayesian statistics have been used in many different fields, including chess, stock market analysis, medical research, and sports betting. In general, Bayesian statistics give a much more accurate picture of probability than an RNG alone, due to their incorporation of prior knowledge and statistical analysis of large datasets. The one downside to Bayesian statistics is that they are often difficult to implement and require a substantial amount of mathematical knowledge. Fortunately, modern sportsbooks make the process much easier and more accessible for recreational players.

## How Do NFL And NCAA Football Stand Out From Other Sports?

Due to their widespread adoption in North America and the number of games played each year, most sports fans are familiar with the NFL and NCAA. If you are new to sports wagering, it may be hard to determine which sport’s betting tools are the most beneficial as each one has developed tailored methods for calculating betting odds. Below, we compare and contrast these two sports in an effort to provide you with an overview of the various components which make up each format’s betting toolkit.

### NFL Football

The National Football League or NFL began in 1894 and are now one of the most popular sports in the world. They have a playoff system where the last team standing wins the championship, which makes their games somewhat more exciting than those of other sports. Some would say that the NFL has the greatest collection of athletes in the world due to their popularity in America and worldwide. They also have one of the most sophisticated and comprehensive betting toolsets available. This is mainly thanks to the innovation of their online sportsbooks which provide live odds updates throughout the day and offer in-play wagering. Many NFL fans consider the odds to be the most important aspect of their betting experience, often using tools like prop betting or parlays to get the best price.

### NCAA Football

The National Collegiate Athletics Association or NCAA began in 1906 and are the opposite of the NFL in many ways. They are much less popular, have far fewer games, and the main event is actually sporting events which are between teams of collegiate athletes. Despite this, the NCAA does offer up some exciting moments where two or more teams battle it out for supremacy. Typically, the betting tools of the NCAA are much simpler than those of the NFL as they were originally designed to calculate the probability of a single team winning an individual game. Since then, the NCAA has added on to their original tools to create an entire industry of statistical models and indicators used to predict winning teams and players. Many people consider the tools of the NCAA to be the least sophisticated out of all of the sports betting toolsets, but that’s probably because they are afraid of using them incorrectly. The simplicity of these tools makes them more accessible for recreational players, especially when contrasted with the complexity of the other tools.

### What Is The Main Difference Between NFL And NCAA Football?

While the overall structure of both the NFL and NCAA football is exactly the same, there are a few key differences which make them stand out from other sports. First, for fans of American football, the games are generally much more exciting, especially since there is a direct correlation between the intensity of the competition and the outcome of the game. This is also due to the fact that the game is often decided by a single touchdown or field goal, which intensifies the urgency for both teams to win. The second key difference is that the games themselves take far less time to complete, which leaves more time for the action once the game ends. Finally, because the games are not as long, less is more when it comes to strategy and pacing; you want to use whatever tools you have at your disposal efficiently. This is why the betting tools of the NFL and NCAA are so different; the former is a much more comprehensive toolkit developed for calculating the likelihood of an event occurring while the latter is designed for quickly determining the probability of winning an individual game.

## How Do NFL And NCAA Football Differ When It Comes To The Games Themselves?

While the betting tools of the NFL and NCAA are the same when it comes to picking winners, the games themselves are quite different. This is mainly due to the fact that each sport has adopted and modified their rules and regulations to fit their game-day experience. Below, we detail some of the differences between the Games themselves, as well as some of the cultural differences that have arisen due to this innovation.

### Goalposts Vs. End Zones

One of the most recognizable and iconic sporting events is undoubtedly the football game. This type of competition is between two teams of eleven players, including the goalkeeper. One of the defining differences between American and British football is the goalposts which are used to determine who has the ball in the end zone. In the NFL, the two goalposts are at the near and far ends of the field, which means that a touchdown will be worth six points. This was adopted from rugby football, which was originally played without a net. If a player touches the ball after it goes over the crossbar on the posts, then it is automatically a touchdown. In rugby, a try is worth three points, while a dropped ball which is picked up and moved forward results in a two-point conversion.

As outlined above, in American football the goalposts are at the near and far ends of the field, which means that a touchdown will be worth six points. Should the ball touch any part of the goalposts, then it is automatically a touchdown. The reason for this is that if the goalposts were not at the ends of the field, then a field goal would be worth five points instead of three. This is one of the main reasons why scoring was so high in the NFL during the golden era from 1934 to 1958.

In the 1960s, the NFL switched to a different type of goalpost which is now used throughout the league. This new innovation was named the “Super Bowl” because it replaced the old tradition of having two posts with a single vertical post which is now used in the big game in America. Similarly, the NCAA has changed the way they score as well. Instead of two posts at the near and far ends of the field, their goalposts are set up in a T pattern, which was done to fit the dimensions of the football field. This is why if you compare photos of an NFL game in the ‘70s with those of today, you will see that the posts have changed position.