For centuries, people have been fascinated by the idea of fortune telling. Since the start of this year, people have been looking for ways to get a sneak peek at the future, and one of the most popular methods is to bet on US elections. The British bookmaker known for its ‘politically incorrect’ approach, has been giving its customers the chance to place wagers on the results of the presidential election for years. But just how accurate has Ladbrokes’ predictions been?
A Brief History Of Ladbrokes’ Presidential Election Predictions
In 1960, James Burton, the founder of Burton Group Inc. purchased the rights to use the Ladbrokes name and logo in the US and Canada. It was the first of its kind in those countries. Soon after, the company opened offices across North America, and in 2012, it had 43 offices and more than 400 employees. The Canadian and American operations are now jointly branded as ‘Ladbrokes’, and the global headquarters are in London. Since the purchase of the company, Burton has held various leadership roles in the business.
One of the first elections that the company got involved in was the 1968 presidential election. At the time, it was one of the only bookmakers to offer odds on the election of a woman President. Although journalist Helen Thomas was declared the winner by a 6-to-4 margin in the popular vote, Democrat Richard Nixon was elected the 40th President of the United States, winning a majority of the electoral vote. Nixon would go on to win a record-breaking 49 States in the presidential election of 1972.
The following year, Ladbrokes became the first bookmaker to offer odds on the results of the Senate election. The company predicted a 50/50 chance of Democrat George McGovern becoming the next President of the United States, and odds of 1.75 on Republican Robert Dole. McGovern did eventually become President, but his popular vote total of 2.9 million was the lowest in history, and he only won a single State, West Virginia. Dole became Vice President of the United States.
Ladbrokes’ Most Popular 2018 Predictions
The 2018 US midterm elections were one of the most exciting elections in recent history. For the first time, people had the chance to vote for a Democratic majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. The polls had also suggested that Democrats would win a majority of the gubernatorial seats, too. This was in addition to the fact that several prominent Republicans had announced that they would be challenging President Trump in his own party’s primaries. However, despite all the signs, the Republicans retained control of Congress.
Despite this, people still dreamed of a President Trump impeachment. After all, the company had offered odds on this very subject. Earlier this year, the bookmaker launched a ‘Betting Odds’ market for its customers, allowing them to place wagers on the outcome of the impeachment proceedings. The odds had been shortened to 3/1 (1.5) in favour of the President being impeached.
The following are the most popular 2018 predictions as voted for by Ladbrokes’ customers:
1. Impeachment of Trump (3/1)
2. Democrats to Win Back The Senate (2/1)
3. Senate Vote to Remove Trump From Office (2/1)
4. Senate Vote to Impeach Trump (1.5/1)
5. House Vote to Impeach Trump (1.5/1)
6. Trump Will Be The 45th US President (1/1)
3. Senate Vote to Remove Trump From Office (2/1)
4. Senate Vote to Impeach Trump (1.5/1)
5. House Vote to Impeach Trump (1.5/1)
6. Trump Will Be The 45th US President (1/1)
5. House Vote to Impeach Trump (1.5/1)
6. Trump Will Be The 45th US President (1/1)
In June, the White House petition to impeach Trump reached the 1 million signature threshold, and as of September 20th, it has already surpassed 1.3 million signatures. So, for those who were hoping to see the President face impeachment, their dreams could soon become reality.
Why Are Young People Embracing The ‘Teflone’ Approach To Politics?
While some may still be enamoured with the ‘swashbuckling’ President Trump, it seems that his popularity among millennials is on the wane. In fact, last year saw the highest number of young voter registrations in history, with 2.75 million people between the ages of 18 and 29 registered to vote. That’s over 10% of the entire voting population.
This year’s midterms saw an even greater emphasis on young people. In addition to the historic voter registration, hundreds of thousands of 18-29 year olds actually voted in the midterms. Why the surge in interest among this demographic?
It seems that many young people are looking for a different kind of leadership, one that is more in tune with their needs. According to the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change, the modern ‘Generation Z’ (i.e., people who were born in the late 1990s or early 2000s) grew up in a digital age, where the traditional hierarchies of parent, teacher, and doctor often seem outdated.
These young people don’t have the same respect for authority that previous generations did. In fact, a 2015 survey by the American Institute of Stress found that nearly 1 in 3 millennials feels that ‘authority figures’ (i.e., people in positions of power and influence, such as police officers, military personnel, and government officials) are among the people who cause the most stress in their lives. The most common source of stress for these millennials is work. In particular, the unpredictable demands of a job, the need to follow ‘rules’ without question, and feeling pressured to succeed in your career also contribute to their stress levels.
This is why many Gen Z and millennials are turning to ‘Teflon’ politics. Political consultant Matt Miller defines ‘Teflon’ politics as “a governing approach that avoids direct confrontation with the public and allows leaders to get things done despite political setbacks.”
In other words, it’s a way of doing politics that keeps the peace. ‘Teflon’ politics allows for compromise and collaboration, both of which are viewed as more positive qualities in a leader.
In 2018, Democrats embraced this approach to politics, and it was largely due to their outstanding performance in recruiting and mobilizing young people. In the 2018 midterm elections, over 150,000 young people were registered to vote. That’s compared to the 119,000 who were registered in the 2014 midterm elections, and the 107,000 who were registered in the 2010 midterms. In particular, the Democratic Party saw an increase of 40% in the number of young voter registrations compared to 2018, while the Republican Party saw a small decrease of 1%.
According to a study published by the Harvard Kennedy School, simply put, “voters under 30 prefer diverse political candidates and policies, while older voters prefer candidates and policies that reflect their own views.” In other words, these younger people want to be represented by a political party that is reflective of their interests. This is why the Democrat Party is the clear choice for younger voters.
Which Party Will Be The Next to Embrace ‘Teflon’ Politics?
In the short term, it appears that the Democrats are going to continue to benefit from the ‘Teflon’ approach to politics. Not only did they perform exceptionally well in the midterms, but the party also dominated fundraising during the 2020 presidential campaign. As a result, the Democratic Party has the financial wherewithal to be more proactive in opposing Trump’s policies.
The question is, which party will be the next to embrace ‘Teflon’ politics?
Based on the above, it appears that the Democrats are going to continue to be the party of choice for young Americans and those interested in ‘Teflon’ politics. This is particularly important since the next election is less than two years away. Young people make up a substantial portion of the population, and they are more likely to turn out and vote than older people. This could be key to keeping the Democrats in power for the foreseeable future.
However, it’s not just about winning the next election. The Democrats need to stay proactive, and the best way to do this is by keeping their options open for 2021 and beyond. This is where creating a permanent coalition of voters comes in. It’s extremely unlikely that the Democrats are going to form a coalition with a party that is primarily composed of old people. That will never happen.
This is why it’s so important for the Democrats to keep attracting voters young and old, as well as those who feel more comfortable in a coalition than in a traditional political party. In other words, it’s time to stop looking at the presidential election in 2020 and start looking at the next one.