How to Build a Winning MLB Betting Model

The baseball season is just around the corner! With the 2020 MLB season set to begin on March 26, now is the perfect time to gear up for the game of the year. With no shortage of excitement surrounding the upcoming season, it’s also the perfect chance to dust off your sports books and get ready to place a few sports bets. If you’re new to betting or simply looking to try your hand at sports betting, this article will help get you started in the right direction.

The Basics Of MLB Betting

Before we begin, let’s take a few minutes to go over some of the basics of MLB betting. First off, remember: the odds adjust based on the amount Bet, so be sure to check this before placing large bets. For reference, a $100 bet on the season winner will cost you $110 at -110 odds, $110 at -105 odds, and $105 at -110 odds. If you’re looking to wager smaller amounts, say, $10 or less, the juice will eat into any small profit you might make.

What Are The Odds In MLB?

The odds in Major League Baseball (MLB) can be a little confusing at first. When you hear or read about bookmakers taking ‘bets’, odds are usually talked about in terms of dog, snake and horse races. While those are all extremely prevalent in today’s sports betting world, the odds in MLB are actually much more sophisticated than that. For example, take a look at the 2020 MLB odds:

  • BJ’s Vegas Odds (Bettors’ Junction): Yankees (+120), Red Sox (+105), Athletics (+105), Twins (+105), Indians (+120),
  • Bovada (Bovada Sportsbook): Yankees (+125), Red Sox (+120), Athletics (+120), Twins (+120), Indians (+125),
  • BetOnline (BetOnline Sportsbook): Yankees (+125), Red Sox (+125), Athletics (+125), Twins (+130), Indians (+150)
  • Intertops (Intertops Sportsbook): Yankees (+125), Red Sox (+125), Athletics (+125), Twins (+130), Indians (+145)
  • BetFortuna (BetFortuna Sportsbook): Yankees (+125), Red Sox (+125), Athletics (+120), Twins (+105), Indians (+125)
  • MyBookie (MyBookie): Yankees (+125), Red Sox (+125), Athletics (+125), Twins (+140), Indians (+155)

There, now you know all there is to know about the odds in MLB. The above information should give you a good idea of what to expect when betting on baseball. For the most part, the lines are pretty stable and won’t change all that much throughout the course of the season. That being said, as always, there are exceptions. For the most part, the above sportsbooks have solid reputations, but pay attention to what location you are at when placing your bets as the lines can vary from one sportsbook to another.

How Do I Calculate The Spread?

The spread in sports betting is the difference between the point spread and the handicap. Let’s take a look at an example:

Say the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hosting the New Orleans Saints in week 9. The line for the game is Tampa Bay (+3.5) and the spread is +3.5 – 3.5 = 0 points. This means the spread is essentially a 50/50 proposition. For every $100 you wager on the game, you’ll earn $50 back (profit).

To calculate the profit for this bet, simply take the amount wagered and subtract what you’ve won: $100 – $50 = $50 (profit).

Keep in mind, however, that not all bets are created equal. Take a look at the above examples and you’ll notice that while the spread is the same for each game, the amount wagered on each game is not. Let’s take a closer look at what this means: