How to Calculate EV Betting

In the simplest terms, betting on the outcome of an event such as a horse race is a wagering activity where one bets on the outcome of the event. However, there is more to betting than meets the eye, and it is important to understand how to calculate event-based betting in order to minimize your losses and maximize your wins.

Types Of Event-Based Betting

Depending upon the jurisdiction, betting on an event such as a horse race can be structured in different ways. For example, in some places you may be able to make only one bet per participant, per event. In other locations, you may be able to make multiple bets per person, per event. The important thing to keep in mind is that, in general, the more bets you make, the greater your potential to win. Even in a multi-bet jurisdiction, however, you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

The House Edge

In the simplest terms, the house edge is the percentage of money that the casino or bookmaker takes as a profit off each bet. For instance, if the house edge is 10%, then the casino profits off each dollar that is bet. Although this may not seem like a significant amount, over the long-term this can add up and could potentially knock a substantial amount of money off your earnings. In some instances, the house edge can be as high as 20%.

The Longer The Event The Greater The House Edge

In the world of betting, the longer the event the greater the house edge. For example, in horse racing, the longer the race the greater the house edge. This is because more people will be willing to wager on the outcome of the longer event. In this way, the house edge will be proportionally increased. For example, with each successive quarter the house edge goes up by 1%. Thus, in the last quarter it will be twice as great as in the first quarter. When you multiply this by the fact that there are four quarters in a race and you are essentially betting on the outcome of a multiple-output event, the math starts to add up quickly. This is why, in general, it is advisable to wager on short-lived events such as sports contests and political activities due to their relatively short duration.

Reducing The House Edge

Many casinos and bookmakers will be more than happy to reduce your house edge by using advanced software and propoting up odds that are more favorable to you. They may also be able to provide other perks such as complimentary food and drinks, in-house concerts, or access to special events or competitions. In some places, there is even a requirement that casinos and bookmakers must reduce the house edge to zero.

How To Calculate EV Performance

When you are evaluating an investment such as a stock or a crypto currency, one of the first things you will want to do is calculate its expected value. This is essentially the value that you are projecting the instrument will have at the end of the time period you have chosen to analyze. Naturally, the expected value of a stock is generally going to be somewhat different than that of a crypto currency since stocks are subject to the law of large numbers while cryptos are not. However, in general, the more risk-tolerant you are the better when it comes to stocks and other traditional instruments since you will not lose money as long as the overall market value stays within your chosen bounds. When you are analyzing the performance of an investment vehicle such as an ETF or a crypto currency, one of the first things you will want to look at is its expected value. This is because the fewer the expected returns the more the risk. When you have a positive expected value the overall risk of the portfolio is proportionally reduced. This does not necessarily mean that you will make money – it just means you have lowered the risk of losing money.

Expected Value vs. Actual Value

Although you are analyzing an investment for the purpose of taking a potentially risk-reducing position, it is still pertinent to consider how the investment is actually performing. This is especially true when considering high-risk, high-reward investments such as cryptocurrencies. In most cases, you will not want to bet on the outcome of an event if you cannot accurately gauge your chances of winning. In general, the better the track record the more confidence you can have in the predicted outcome. This is why you will sometimes see people say that actual value is more important than expected value when it comes to analyzing the performance of an investment.

The Margin Of Safety

When you are considering taking a potentially risk-reducing position in the stock market or other investment vehicles, it is important to have some type of safety net. This safety net can take the form of a stop-loss order that will limit your loss or, in the case of a crypto currency, a sufficient amount of fiat currency reserves that will allow you to continue participating in the market should your chosen cryptocurrency suddenly take a nosedive. Having a solid margin of safety is extremely important because it will give you the confidence to truly engage in the wagering activity and place the occasional wager that will undoubtedly give you a fun and exciting time but also a chance to make some money. It is always better to be overly-conservative with your money but, at least, you will always have something to show for it in the end.

The Cost Of Taking A Risk

It is always a relevant question to ask ourselves when we take a risk what are we risking for, and what are we losing should the risk materialize. Naturally, when you are risking money then you are potentially losing money, but it is sometimes difficult to quantify just how much money you are losing. For example, when you bet on a horse race then you are essentially wagering money that you cannot afford to lose. In this case, the cost of taking a risk is simply the money that you are losing because you have wagered more than you can afford to lose. However, in some situations (e.g., sports betting), the cost of taking a risk can be more intangible and harder to quantify. Generally, you will want to try and minimize these costs as much as possible. One way to minimize the cost of risk is to spread the risk among a number of different instruments. In most cases, this is better than putting all of your eggs in one basket and risking everything on one big wager.

Reducing The Cost Of Taking A Risk

As we have established, it is always better to spread the risk among a number of different instruments. This is because the fewer the overall risk factors the less the overall cost of risk. For example, if you were considering placing a wager on the outcome of the World Cup then it would be a smart move to spread your wagering money among multiple different teams in order to reduce the overall cost of risk. Thus, should one of your teams be defeated then it is not necessarily the end of the world since you have still profited from the other three matches. In general, the fewer the risk factors the less the cost of risk. In the case of crypto currencies, this is especially true since the market is generally viewed as being more risky than more traditional investment vehicles due to its relative youth and the potentially unlimited ways it can (and does) crash and burn. Just remember: less is more when it comes to lowering the cost of risk.

Expected Value Vs. Real Value

When you are analyzing the performance of an investment (be it a crypto currency, stock, or other instrument) then it is always important to look at both expected value and real value. This is because sometimes the investment will perform as expected but in an unanticipated and sudden manner. For example, if you believe that the S&P 500 will continue to rise then you might decide to short-sell a number of shares but, in the meantime, let’s say you make a $10,000 profit on those short-sells. However, in a later transaction you decide to buy back those same shares at a much higher price point and make a $20,000 profit. In this case, you experienced an unexpected real value increase but it was nevertheless something you were betting on and, as such, it must be taken into account when considering your overall investment performance.