Bettors love odds — they love them so much that they’ll lay down a credit card to place a bet on a sure thing, and even share in a win when it equals or exceeds their stake. But when it comes to odds in sportsbooks, they’ll often get burned. We’re not talking about getting a bad beat — we’re talking about the books going up while they’re watching the game. And it doesn’t happen too often. That’s why many people don’t understand why sportsbooks offer such amazing odds on certain events. But if you know what you’re doing, it’s absolutely worth it.
Here’s how to figure 14 to 1 odds:
Step 1: Find The Underdog.
There are few things more exciting than backing an underdog, right? Who cares if they’re never going to win, right? They’re still fighting to prove themselves and earn your faith.
If you have a hunch that a certain team is going to win or lose, find a way to place a bet on them. Don’t just take my word for it — look at the books! Once the games start, you’ll know if your choice was the right one or the wrong one. If it’s the wrong one, you’ll have to cover your loss. But if it’s the right one, you’ll be able to enjoy the fruits of your labor.
Step 2: Consider The Margin Of Safety.
We all like to feel that we’ve got a good handle on a situation. Even if you think that a team is bound to win, it can still go either way. Sure, they’ll probably go on to beat the spread, but it’s not a given. Just because the books say it’s going to happen doesn’t make it true. You can’t know how the outcome of the game is going to play out, so don’t risk it.
If you’re feeling particularly adventurous, you can always place a protective bet. This is where you bet on the outcome of the game without necessarily having any idea whether or not your team is going to win. Sometimes these types of bets pay off in a big way. But you also run the risk of losing a lot of money if they don’t. Once in a while, these types of bets work out exactly how you think they will. But more often than not, they end up going against you. In that case, you’re stuck with a losing bet. This is where knowing how to calculate odds and knowing how to read a betting line come in handy. You can figure out whether or not to use a margin of safety bet based on how much you’re willing to wager.
Step 3: Calculate The Probability Of The Favorite Winning.
If you’ve got a way to figure out the probabilities of an event happening, then you can work backwards to figure out the likelihood of your favorite team winning. All you need is a little bit of statistics and some good old-fashioned intuition along with a bit of common sense. If you’ve ever taken a statistics course in college, then you already have the basic building blocks needed to figure this kind of thing out. Knowing how to calculate probabilities makes all the difference in the world when it comes to successful betting.
For example, say you’ve got a $100 bet on the favorite team to win a particular game. You think that they’ve got a 50% chance of winning. This means that the probability that they win is exactly 50%. But wait! The bookies have another team with an 80% chance of winning. This means that if you wager $100 on those odds, you’re still going to win $40! Calculating the probabilities is key to making wise decisions when betting. It can also help you figure out the best time to bet — depending on the probabilities of different outcomes, you may want to wait for a game that has more likely to go your way. But once the games start, you won’t have the luxury of waiting. Either you’re going to win or lose the bet — there’s no do-over!
Step 4: Use Common Sense.
Believe it or not, a lot of people get lucky when betting. They think the books are lying to them purposely, or that the games are fixed. But more often than not, the games are just downright unpredictable. This is where good old-fashioned intuition comes in. You’ll have to develop a good feel for the game — knowing how and when to pick your spots, when to jump in and when to walk away. Sometimes the key to winning is even simpler: sometimes it just takes good luck.
In the end, however, it comes down to this: you either believe that good luck is on your side, or you don’t. If you don’t, then it’s probably best not to put yourself in that position. Especially when you’re winning all of a sudden, you may want to hang on for a while and enjoy the ride. But if you do believe that good luck is on your side, then don’t be afraid to ride that wave as long as possible.
Hopefully, this article has helped shed some light on how to figure odds in sports betting. Just remember that a lot of luck comes into play, so take that into consideration when placing your wagers.