As a sports bettor, you may be looking for ways to make the most of your wagers. Perhaps you’ve decided to take up betting as a means to make some cash, or perhaps your friends have convinced you that you’re really good at picking games. Regardless of the reason, you’ll eventually end up performing some sort of statistical analysis on your picks to see how well you’re doing compared to the average person or to prove to yourself that you are, indeed, skilled in this area. This article will walk you through the basics of how to perform a statistical analysis on your sports betting – from selecting a sport to determining how well you are doing based on your chosen metrics.
The Basics
Before you start performing any kind of statistical analysis on your MLB picks, you need to familiarize yourself with a few essential concepts regarding the sport. First, you’ll want to consider the different types of wagers that you could make. For example, you might decide that you want to bet on whether or not a player will make a certain number of free throws in a game. Or, perhaps, you’ve selected the over/under on how many points a team will score in a particular matchup. These are just some examples of the types of wagers that you could make in sports betting. Remember: this article is geared toward helping you make the most of your sports wagers, so we won’t get too deep into the theory of probability and statistics. For a more in-depth analysis of these topics, you could look to some of the many books on the subject. Of course, if you feel that you’re better off learning through practice, there’s no problem with that!
The second concept that you’ll need to know in order to perform a statistical analysis on your MLB picks is exactly when to collect them. Most online sportsbooks, where you’ll find the majority of the picks, will have you enter your sports information into the site manually. In other words, you’ll need to remember to visit the site on a regular basis and enter the information just prior to game time. This is usually a good idea, as you’ll want your data to be as up-to-date as possible. Otherwise, you could end up comparing apples to oranges when it comes to your stats – assuming that some of the data was collected prior to the start of this season and some was collected last year.
The last thing that you want to do is compare your stats from season to season. This could very well mess up your results. Always try to analyze the data over the course of a full MLB season, as this will provide the best comparison for your performance. For example, if you bet on the World Cup of Soccer this year, but did not bet on the World Cup last year, your results could be skewed dramatically, as you’d be comparing apples to oranges.
Now that you’re equipped with the basics, you can move on to the fun part – performing a statistical analysis on your sports picks!
Performing The Analysis
The most fun part of performing a statistical analysis is actually performing the comparison. Once you’ve selected the metrics that you’d like to use to compare your performance, you can start entering your data into the site that you’ve chosen. Remember, this is all about having fun and being able to prove to yourself or your friends that you’re skilled at picking games. So, enter the relevant data as you’ve collected it and keep working your way toward comparing your performance to the average person or to previous seasons.
When comparing your stats to a baseline – whether that’s the average person or a previous season – you’ll need to pick a number that represents perfection. In other words, you’ll want to find the best possible score that you can across all sports and all seasons. To do this, simply find the highest score that you’ve ever achieved across all sports and all seasons and use this as a benchmark for your performance. Keep in mind, though, that the benchmark can vary from season to season. For example, if you’re an avid golfer, you might want to use your score from last year as a benchmark for this year’s results, as last year was a very good season for you.
Now, once you’ve picked the benchmark you’ll need to work backward to determine your score for the current season. In order to do this, simply find the total amount of money that you’ve won or lost as a percentage of your total earnings. For example, if you bet $10,000.00 on the World Cup of Soccer and it finished up $14,500.00, you’d have a 50% winning rate – or $4,500.00 in earnings from $10,000 in wagers. In this case, your score for the World Cup would be $4,500/$4,500, or 100%. To calculate your score for the NBA, simply find the total amount of points that you’ve scored in NBA games this season and compare this to your total amount of points from the same season last year. For example, if you went 0/2 in your picks last year and 2/2 this year, your score would be 100% (2/2) – (0/2) = 100%. You can do the same for the NFL and other major American sports. For the complete list of sports and the metrics that you could use to compare your performance, check out this Wikipedia page –>
- Baseball (MLB): wins, losses, total earnings, average earnings per game
- Basketball (NBA): wins, losses, total earnings, average earnings per game
- Football (NFL): wins, losses, total earnings, average earnings per game
- Hockey (NHL): wins, losses, total earnings, average earnings per game
- Soccer (league not specified): wins, losses, total earnings, average earnings per game
- Tennis (tennis): wins, losses, total earnings, average earnings per game
- Golf (golf): wins, losses, total earnings, average earnings per game
Once you’ve picked the winning sports and the metrics that you’d like to use to compare your performance, all that’s left is for you to have some fun and prove to yourself or your friends that you’re skilled at picking games. Of course, if you’d like to make a bit of cash, you could use one of the many online sportsbooks to perform the analysis for you and get paid in either cash or free play. Alternatively, you could use an online sportsbook in which you can bet on whether or not a player will score a certain number of points in a game.
Hopefully, this article has provided you with enough information to get you started on your journey to comparing your sports betting results to those of a baseline. Always try to have fun with this and do your best to prove to yourself and your friends that you are, in fact, a skilled sports bettor. Good luck out there!