There is nothing more exciting for a gambler than being able to create his or her own betting model. The ability to tweak the odds in your favor means you can play at any time and place that suits you. You can be the boss of your own destiny and never have to settle for sub-optimal odds! Let’s explore how to create your own betting model, step-by-step.
Step one: Set a benchmark for why you want to create a betting model
The first step in building a betting model is to figure out why you want to create one in the first place. There are several reasons a person might create a betting model — convenience, gameplay variety, analytical tools, etc. — but you should pick one that is compelling enough to keep you motivated to build the model.
The most basic reason to build a betting model is because you want to be able to enjoy the game, regardless of whether or not you win. Being able to create the perfect betting line that gives you the best chance of winning is the holy grail of gaming. This is why so many bookmakers have integrated this feature into their platforms — so you can focus on having fun instead of worrying about how the underlying odds work.
Step two: Identify the types of bets you will place
The next step in creating a betting model is to figure out which types of bets you will use it for. The first thing to do is to create a virtual bankroll and add money to it. You should set a maximum stake for yourself and stick to it. It is important to note here that this is not an exact science and you will have to play around with different betting amounts to find what suits you best. The main thing is to find a balance between risking too much and not risking enough.
You should use this step to figure out how much you want to risk on any given wager. If you are new to betting, it is always a good idea to start out small and then work your way up to bigger bets. This way, you can always go back and review your analysis without any regrets. Trying to predict the future is very tricky and often leads to errors that cost you money. Having a betting model means you can always go back and review your positions without any qualms. This is the primary advantage of having a model — it allows you to play with complete recall.
Step three: Define the types of outcomes you are interested in capturing
Once you have a benchmark and a sense of which types of bets you will place, it’s time to figure out which types of outcomes you are interested in capturing. The main goal of this step is to define the types of events you will use to generate your profit. It is essential you define these outcomes in a way that is clear and easy to understand by others — including yourself. This way, you can monitor your model’s performance over time and make any necessary adjustments as needed.
Step four: Select the types of games you will use to test your model
The next step in creating a betting model is to determine which types of games you will use to test it. The first thing to do is to set a time limit and a play-through threshold. The amount of time you set here will dictate how much volume of play you can get out of your model before you have to update it. The more you set here, the longer it will take to update — and the more false positives you will have to filter out. Setting a play-through threshold here is pretty self-explanatory. This is where you set a limit on how much you will risk on any given wager. Your goal for this step is to limit your losses to a manageable level — especially since you are new to betting and don’t know how the system works yet. Having a defined risk threshold will give you a sense of how good or bad your model’s results are and whether or not you should stick with it. For example, if you set a maximum loss of 10% here and decide to play with a $5 wager, you can be assured that you will break even (or make a little bit of money) on average — but if you set this threshold too high and decide to play with a $100 wager, you might end up in the red (losses exceeding your risk threshold).
Step five: Tweak the model as needed
The last step in building a betting model is to tweak the model as needed. The only thing you need to do for this step is to make sure all the variables you have constructed are giving you the results you are looking for. The best part of this step is that you can go back and review it at any time during the game. There is no need to wait until after the game to assess how well your model performed. This is a major advantage of having a working betting model — you can always go back and review its results, even if you are in the middle of a game. Any inaccuracies here will cost you money, so take the time to ensure you are using the best available data to build your model.
As you can see above, this is a very basic overview of how to create a betting model. There is a lot more you can do with one — such as setting limits for which types of bets you will accept, analyzing the results of specific games or players, adjusting the model’s variables on the fly, etc. The important thing to keep in mind is that with each new version of your model, you will have to go through this entire process again. Thankfully, it’s a pretty straightforward process and you will find the steps described above to be more than adequate for getting started.