You’ve probably seen people on social media betting on the Belmont Stakes, the famous horse race that takes place each June in New York City. You may not know that the city actually has two horse races: the Belmont Stakes and the Metropolitan Handicap, which is less prominent but has a more interesting story.
The Belmont Stakes were started in 1867 and named after a hotel located in New York City. The hotel’s previous name was the “Belmont Mansion” because the hotel was previously located on the grounds of what was then known as “Richemont’s Estate”. It wasn’t until the 1970s that the name was changed to the “Belmont” after the famous family that purchased the estate in 1906 and turned it into a private country club.
Belmont is one of the most important horse races throughout North America because of its popularity and prestige. It is considered the “second most important race after the Kentucky Derby” and is widely viewed as the “American Classic”. The race is commonly touted as the “Best Two Out Of Three” in terms of prestige because it comes before both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. These three races are collectively known as the “Triple Crown”.
The betting line for the Belmont Stakes is notoriously difficult to figure out because of the enormous prestige and popularity of the event. The early betting lines for the 2016 Belmont Stakes were as high as 12-1/2 or 13-1/2, which is nearly impossible to win unless you have astronomical odds in your favor (like the Patriots did in the Super Bowl). It is not uncommon for the final odds to be settled at 7-1 or 8-1, which makes it more of a 50-50 shot to win.
Key Points to Remember While Betting On Belmont
The bottom line is this: You will not win often if you follow traditional methods of betting on horse races (mostly placing small wagers on the horses you think will win). Your results will likely be less than stellar because the line will constantly move in the opposite direction from the way you want it to move (e.g., when you bet on a long shot, you will likely see the line moved in favor of the favorite).
Instead of following this approach, you will do much better if you learn how to bet on the races using specialized formulas and tools that take into account the entire racing history of the animal and the trends that apply to it throughout the season.
Here are some key points to keep in mind while betting on the Belmont Stakes:
The Importance Of Back In General
One of the most significant trends that can be applied to the Belmont Stakes is called “backing in general”, which simply means using the trend to place wagers on a long shot as opposed to a short one. When you back in general, you will be placing a large wager on a long shot because the theory is that over the course of the season, the long shot will eventually “pay off” (e.g., will win or place).
The opposite of backing in general is “hedging”, which stands for placing small wagers on the favorite in order to maximize the potential for profit. When you hedge, you’re effectively placing a “betting market” in favor of the favorite because you’re afraid the long shot will lose, in which case you would lose your money. In general, horses that are backed will win 59% of the time while horses that are hedged will only win 42% of the time (according to research conducted by SportsBettingComparison.com).
Betting On The Trends
Another way to improve your odds of winning is to use betting tools and resources that are specialized in analyzing the races and identifying trends that apply to them. Some of the most common trends that can be applied to the Belmont Stakes are:
- Longest Winner’s Stand Still Standing – The longest winner’s stand still standing is an indicator of the speed of a horse. Generally speaking, the faster the stand still standing, the faster the horse is going to run (i.e., win or place).
- Last 3-Décor Wins – When a horse wins 3-décor events (dressage, showmanship and/or handwork), there is a significantly higher chance it will win the Belmont Stakes compared to when it fails to win any of these events. It should be noted that a horse can only win one of these events so the chances are slightly increased that a horse will place rather than win.
- Wins In Early Meetings – When a horse wins its first 4-5 races before the season starts (mostly during the pre-season), there is a higher chance it will win the Belmont Stakes compared to when it defeats a horse that has not yet started competing. (The theory behind this one is that the horse has not yet been subjected to the rigors of competition, so it is still fresh and able to perform at its best).
- Wins When Bred To Perform Better – When a mare (female horse) is bred to perform better (i.e., bigger, faster or stronger), there is a higher chance she will produce a faster, bigger and stronger offspring that will win the Belmont Stakes. Conversely, a stallion (male horse) that is bred to perform better will only win the race if his performance is indeed superior to that of the other horses competing (i.e., if he isn’t already accounted for in another breed).
- Wins When Placed Early – If a horse is placed early (i.e., before the official start of the race), there is a significantly higher chance it will win the Belmont Stakes compared to when it is listed late (i.e., the starting position is not changed because other horses refused to yield to it). Placing a horse early is generally considered “streaking”, which means the horse was moved up to the starting line before the rest of the field was still in the gate. (The theory behind this one is that the early placement allows the jockey to get a good look at the horse before the start of the race, which may cause him to change his mind about wanting to race it and instead decide to scratch it or pull it out).
- Better Odds On The Over/Under – When betting on the Over/Under (i.e., when you bet on whether the total amount of money wagered on a race will be more or less than the actual total), there is a significantly higher chance of winning if the bettor picks the under (i.e., if the total amount of money wagered on the race is lower than the actual total). Conversely, if the bettor picks the over (i.e., if the total amount of money wagered on the race is higher than the actual total), your chances of winning are significantly reduced.
- Wins When There Is More Than One Pick – When there are more than one pick (i.e., when you can choose more than one winner from among a group of horses), your chances of winning are significantly increased compared to when there is only one pick (i.e., when you have to choose between just two options).
Belmont is one of the most important horse races, if not the most important, throughout North America. It is considered the “Second Most Important Race After The Kentucky Derby” and is widely viewed as the “American Classic”. The race is commonly touted as the “Best Two Out Of Three” in terms of prestige because it comes before both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. The Preakness Stakes is the “third” most important American horse race and is widely considered the “Baby Derby”. If you want to win at betting on Belmont then you have to look into backing in general and applying the right trends to your favor.