The betting lines for the Super Bowl are usually the most heavily scrutinized part of an event that is largely predetermined. However, there is one spot where oddsmakers might adjust their lines based on what happens: the over/under on how many points each team will score. If a $5 million bet were placed before the Super Bowl, would the betting lines change? Would this be the first Super Bowl where the over/under had a major impact on the betting markets?
To answer these questions, we will use Pro Football Focus (PFF)’s PremiumStats to simulate what would happen if a $5 million bet were placed on each Super Bowl team before the game. Let’s take a look at how the betting lines would shift for the three biggest games of the past decade:
2018: Los Angeles Rams (12.5 points under) vs. New England Patriots (12.5 points over)
Traditionally, the Super Bowl has been a battle of offensive powerhouses. In 2018, however, it was the Los Angeles Rams’ balanced offense that dethroned the New England Patriots’ once-dominant offense. The Rams’ attack didn’t put up huge numbers, but it scored enough to keep its defense busy, as the team won 12.5 points under the over/under. If a $5 million bet were placed on the Rams before the game, they would have been heavy favorites in the most overs. The Patriots were the clear underdogs in this game, but an underdog often wins when it comes down to two teams that can shoot the lights out. Tom Brady and the Patriots are still the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl this year, however, the Rams have jumped into the conversation as well.
2015: Carolina Panthers (11 points under) vs. Denver Broncos (8 points over)
In 2015, it was the Carolina Panthers’ elite rushing attack that took down the Denver Broncos in one of the biggest upsets of the past decade. The Panthers scored 11 points under the over/under, which is the third-lowest point total in Super Bowl history. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Denver Broncos scored eight points over, which is the second-highest total in Super Bowl history. If a $5 million bet were placed on the Panthers before the game, they would have been heavy favorites in the most over bets. The underdogs usually come up big in the big game, and the 2015 Super Bowl was no different. However, the run-heavy attack of the Panthers proved to be too much for the Broncos, who were outscored 22-16 in the first half.
2012: New York Giants (9.5 points under) vs. New England Patriots (13 points over)
In 2012, the New England Patriots crushed the New York Giants 45-21 in one of the most one-sided Super Bowls of all time. The Patriots’ massive attacking force proved to be too much for the underdogs, who scored nine points under the over/under in a game that was expected to be close. If a $5 million bet were placed on the Patriots before the game, they would have been heavy favorites in the most over bets. The Giants are still looking for their first Super Bowl win since their last championship in 2007, but at least they got some consolation prizes that year. Tom Brady and the Patriots won both the AFC and the Super Bowl titles that year.
2007: Indianapolis Colts (11 points under) vs. New York Giants (7.5 points over)
In 2007, the New York Giants were not only looking to capture their first Super Bowl victory in almost decade, but they were also looking to redeem themselves after a bitter 2006 season where they failed to defend their title. The Giants had the second-best offense in the NFL that year, and it showed in one of the most exciting Super Bowls in recent memory. If a $5 million bet were placed on the Giants before the game, they would have been heavy favorites in the most over bets. However, the defending champion Indianapolis Colts were not going to be denied their shot at redemption, and they came out firing in a 38-28 victory. Even if the Giants had the second-best offense in the NFL, Indy was better, and that’s what mattered.
To answer the question, yes, a $5 million bet on the Rams would have majorly impacted the betting markets before the 2018 Super Bowl. However, the Rams only scored 12.5 points under the over/under, which is the third-lowest total in Super Bowl history. The Patriots had the highest scoring offense that year, and they still have the highest scoring offense in their history as well. The betting lines would not have shifted that much regardless of what happens in the game. The over/under on points would have been tough to call before the game, but the Rams would have been slight underdogs that needed a big upset to have a chance at winning.
If a $5 million bet were placed on the Panthers or the Giants before the game, the betting lines would have shifted a lot. The underdogs usually come up big in the big game, and in those two cases, it was the underdog that came up big. The 2015 Super Bowl was a classic example of an upset win where the underdog came through. The Carolina Panthers upset the Denver Broncos 22-16, scoring 11 points under the over/under. Twelve years earlier, the New York Giants upset the New England Patriots in a similar fashion, scoring 9.5 points under the over/under.
The betting lines for the Super Bowl tend to be relatively steady up until the game. However, there is one spot where oddsmakers might adjust their lines based on what happens during the game: the over/under on how many points each team will score. If a $5 million bet were placed before the Super Bowl, would the betting lines change? Would this be the first Super Bowl where the over/under had a major impact on the betting markets?
To answer these questions, we will use Pro Football Focus (PFF)’s PremiumStats to simulate what would happen if a $5 million bet were placed on each Super Bowl team before the game. Let’s take a look at how the betting lines would shift for the three biggest games of the past decade:
2018: Los Angeles Rams (12.5 points under) vs. New England Patriots (12.5 points over)
Traditionally, the Super Bowl has been a battle of offensive powerhouses. However, in 2018, it was the Los Angeles Rams’ balanced offense that dethroned the New England Patriots’ once-dominant offense. The Rams’ attack didn’t put up huge numbers, but it scored enough to keep its defense busy, as the team won 12.5 points under the over/under. If a $5 million bet were placed on the Rams before the game, they would have been heavy favorites in the most over bets. The Patriots were the clear underdogs in this game, but an underdog often wins when it comes down to two teams that can shoot the lights out. Tom Brady and the Patriots are still the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl this year, however, the Rams have jumped into the conversation as well.
2015: Carolina Panthers (11 points under) vs. Denver Broncos (8 points over)
In 2015, it was the Carolina Panthers’ elite rushing attack that took down the Denver Broncos in one of the biggest upsets of the past decade. The Panthers scored 11 points under the over/under, which is the third-lowest point total in Super Bowl history. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Denver Broncos scored eight points over, which is the second-highest total in Super Bowl history. If a $5 million bet were placed on the Panthers before the game, they would have been heavy favorites in the most over bets. The underdogs usually come up big in the big game, and the 2015 Super Bowl was no different. However, the run-heavy attack of the Panthers proved to be too much for the Broncos, who were outscored 22-16 in the first half.
2012: New York Giants (9.5 points under) vs. New England Patriots (13 points over)
In 2012, the New England Patriots crushed the New York Giants 45-21 in one of the most one-sided Super Bowls of all time. The Patriots’ massive attacking force proved to be too much for the underdogs, who scored nine points under the over/under in a game that was expected to be close. If a $5 million bet were placed on the Patriots before the game, they would have been heavy favorites in the most over bets. The Giants are still looking for their first Super Bowl win since their last championship in 2007, but at least they got some consolation prizes that year. Tom Brady and the Patriots won both the AFC and the Super Bowl titles that year.