If there’s one thing you need to know in order to place bets on the NFL, it’s this: The point spread is not always the most accurate reflection of the true point score. Sometimes it can be off by as much as 10 points!
This is important because when you make a wager on an NFL game, the point spread is the number you’ll usually see first. It usually refers to the point scoring difference (or total) between the two teams. For example, a favorite is +140 while the underdog is -140. The favorite is attempting to cover the point spread which means they’ll win the game by more than 14 points.
If you look at the score for that game, it’ll usually be the underdogs winning by a slim margin. This is due to the fact that the point spread doesn’t always account for special teams, time of possession, or any other variable that could affect the outcome of the game. Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad, but it depends on the situation. For the best tips on how to maximize your NFL betting opportunities, keep reading
The Importance of Special Teams
One of the best examples of the point spread not always being representative of the true outcome of an NFL game is the importance of special teams. Special teams, specifically the kickers, are often the difference between winning and losing an NFL game. This is because the average kicker is good for about 40% of their kicks, but bad for the other 60% (hence the importance of punting, kicking, and extra point attempts).
One example of this is the Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks game from earlier this year (3rd and 4th quarters). Seattle had to drive 70 yards for their first touchdown and the rest of the game was a defensive struggle.
The point spread at the time of the Arizona vs Seattle game was +6.5. However, the score was actually 2-7. This means that the 6.5 point spread was inaccurate. It should’ve been 7 points.
In any case, the point is that sometimes the spread won’t tell you the whole story and you need to look at other statistics to get the complete picture. For example, in the case of the Arizona vs Seattle game mentioned above, the underdogs won by 7 points but the spread didn’t really reflect how the game was played. The same can be said for most NFL games. A popular stat to consider is the total number of points scored by both teams.
Time Of Possession
Another factor that the point spread doesn’t always account for is time of possession. Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad, but it all depends on the situation. If one team has the ball for longer than the other team, the spread will be off because it doesn’t take into consideration that the team with the ball longer usually wins. This is why teams that can control the game through the air usually win games. The total number of plays and the average number of plays per game are also good indicators to look at when trying to assess the dominance of either team.
Varying Weather Conditions
The weather conditions can also affect the outcome of an NFL game. Some teams are good in bad weather while others struggle. The same goes for matchups played in the rain, snow, sleet, or extreme heat. In these situations, other stats to consider are the number of passes broken up by the secondary (defense), the average number of yards per punt and kickoff return, and the fumbles caused by the offense.
Since these stats vary so much from game to game and situation to situation, you can’t always rely on the spread to give you the full picture. It’s always good to have other stats to fall back on when trying to figure out the exact outcome of an NFL game. For example, if you see a game where the temperature is below freezing and the two teams are generally even in other important stats like total yards and passing yards, but the underdog is ahead in the point spread, it could be a good bet that they’ll cover the spread and win the game. Conversely, if the favorite is favored and has the ball the whole game, it could be a bad omen for the underdogs because they’ll have the short end of the stick regardless of whether they win or lose the game.
Point Versus Yardage Differentials
Another way to assess the dominance of a team is to look at the point versus yardage differentials. This is because most games are won by the team that scores more points than their opponent. However, this can vary from game to game and even within a game. For example, if you look at the New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills game from earlier this year, the point spread was 0 but the Patriots ended up winning by 28 points. This means that the point spread was off in that game by 28 points, but the underdogs won anyway because New England dominated the game both offensively and defensively.
If you’re getting your information from the point spread only, then you’re missing out on a lot of useful information. This is why it’s good to have other stats to fall back on when trying to determine the outcome of an NFL game. This is particularly important if you’re trying to pick a game on the road because there’s usually no way of knowing how the weather is going to affect the game. Some teams are just better at playing in bad weather than others. It’s also important to consider the fact that the team you favoright might be missing some key players due to injury while the other team is full of life and energy. These are the kind of things that can make a massive difference in the outcome of an NFL game, especially on the road.
Finally, some games are just better than others when it comes to matchups. Certain teams are going to be better than others when it comes to beating their rivals. This is why it’s important to consider the matchups when picking games. You can’t always rely on the spread to tell you who’s going to win a particular game. Sometimes it can be a bad matchup and sometimes it can be a good one.
Just remember that sometimes the best strategy is to simply stay away from these games if you’re not prepared for the unexpected. This is often the case when it comes to NFL games because it’s such a diverse league and there are always a number of unexpected results. This usually makes for some exciting football but it can also be chaotic if you’re not fully aware of what’s going on. The bottom line is that if you’re looking to bet on the NFL, you’re best served by simply staying away from matchups and trying to avoid the games where you have a bad feeling about what’s going to happen. For the best odds in NFL betting, it’s usually best to avoid these games altogether if you can.
At the end of the day, nothing beats a good old-fashioned game of football and you should try to catch as many of these games as you can. They’re usually a lot of fun and you get to see a different side of football that you don’t usually get to see otherwise. Unfortunately, sometimes these games are affected by a lot of different variables and it’s difficult to fully comprehend exactly how the game is going to play out. This is why it’s important to have other stats to fall back on when betting on the NFL. It would be nice if the point spread could account for everything, but sometimes it doesn’t and you have to find other ways to judge a game. If you can, it’s often best to avoid betting on the NFL if you can because the chaos that comes with these games can make for some difficult wagering. You might hit the jackpot one time but more often than not, it’s probably best to steer clear.