For many, the upcoming elections will be just another part of day-to-day life. However, for those who follow the daily ups and downs of the US stock market, Brexit negotiations, and geopolitical events, then each new election will be a new opportunity to profit from the existing state of affairs.
After years of political turmoil and scandals, Americans finally have something to look forward to. With the upcoming midterm elections just around the corner, the betting markets are taking a close interest in who will be appointed as the next President of the United States. Odds makers have labelled the upcoming elections as “historic”, with many suggesting that this could be the year that a Republican president is voted into power for the first time since Richard Nixon left office in 1974.
The chances of a President Trump winning a second term in office are rapidly diminishing. With just over two years left until the next presidential election, many are now taking a closer look at the factors responsible for Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016. Below we examine the key causes of Trump’s election victory in the context of betting markets, and try to determine just how long his controversial tenure will last.
The Trump Phenomenon
The man himself, Donald Trump, spent less than two years in politics before rising to power, but during that time he managed to become one of the most controversial and polarizing figures in American politics. While many see Trump as a political outsider, just looking at his career as a real estate developer, his success in business can be attributed to a combination of raw talent and good old-fashioned hard work. What is more, Trump has been an unwavering advocate for smaller government and lower taxes ever since.
In an interview with Time recently, Trump said that, given the chance, he would “guarantee” that his election would create a “revolution” in America, one that would see greater job creation, and reduce government spending.
Whether you love Trump or hate him, it is almost impossible to deny that his unconventional brand of politics and business acumen have struck a chord with the American people and placed him in a position of leadership.
Why Are Pundits Picking Against Trump?
The chances of a Trump second term are looking increasingly bleak. Since Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election, the odds of Trump governing the United States for a second term have dramatically declined. Indeed, after Trump’s controversial Helsinki Summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin last year, many pundits predicted that Trump’s political honeymoon was over.
What’s more, after years of scandals and political turmoil, many Americans are demanding more accountability and less of the same old shit from their government. Indeed, a recent YouGov pollfound that 69% of Americans believe that “government does too much,” while only 26% think that it does the right amount. In the 2016 election, Trump pledged to “drain the swamp” in Washington, and so far he has not disappointed his supporters. However, while Trump may have brought a new approach to politics and shaken the political establishment, many are now seeing his unconventional style as a liability.
What Will Be The Major Cause Of Trump’s Failure To Govern?
A number of prominent voices claim that, despite his outsider status and brash rhetoric, Trump is actually a political insider. In an analysis for New York Magazine, Jonathan Chait argues that, while Trump may have “shaken the political establishment”, he has not “broken it”, and indeed, many of his policies reflect traditional Democratic Party talking points.
In a recent interview with The New York Times, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale reiterated this point, arguing that, based on his experience working on Trump’s behalf, the President’s populist message is closer to middle class than it is to wealthy elites. While this may be true, Trump has certainly benefited from his outsider status, and without active and engaged communities, the media and online worlds, Trump would not be in the situation he is in today. Indeed, it should not be forgotten that Trump is an outsider only in the sense that he has a different point of view and is not beholden to the same establishment figures that his voters are demanding accountability from.
How Long Will Trump’s Successor Last?
Not only does Donald Trump have a limited amount of time left in office, but his polarizing personality and unorthodox brand of politics makes it almost impossible for him to handover power peacefully. As a result, pundits predict that his cabinet and other members of his administration will struggle to carry on his legacy.
On the most basic level, nobody knows who the next president will be. As Vox points out, the president typically serves a four-year term, but because there was no candidate with a clear majority in the Electoral College who won the popular vote, the office of the presidency will now be held by the least popular candidate in American history. This is why many are suggesting that the 45th president will be the first to serve a term without having been elected via a majority vote.
Of course, as mentioned above, it is still very early in the game. Despite the odds, Trump could emerge as a political survivor who defied the experts and beat the odds. Or, he could see his presidency brought to a close as a result of impeachment or, at the very least, a resignation.
Whatever the outcome, this year will be an interesting one for American politics. While there is no denying that Trump stands out as one of the most polarizing and controversial figures in US history, his unpredictable nature and his ability to spark change will keep the world watching, even if he does not. If you’re looking to place bets on the midterm elections then keep an eye on the White House race and the chance of a President Trump being re-elected.