Most Important Stat to Look at When Betting MLB Over/Under

Most people who enjoy betting on sports would agree that over/under records are among the most interesting aspects of sports. Simply put, an over/under record is the number of runs (over) or the number of hits (under) that a team is expected to get in a certain game. It is usually expressed as a total, so if a team is expected to get 3 runs on 5 hits, the over/under record is 3.5. Similarly, if a team is expected to get 5 runs on 7 hits, the over/under record is 5.5.

The purpose of this article is to educate you on the most important stat to consider when betting over/under records in Major League Baseball. We will cover the most recent MLB over/under records, what made them notable, and how you can use that knowledge to improve your betting success.

Over/Under Records Aren’t As Accurate As You Might Think

It is important to note that over/under records are primarily used for entertainment purposes and don’t always have much to do with the outcome of a game. Therefore, they can be slightly inaccurate, especially if there is a large discrepancy between what the books are saying and what the team is actually doing on the field. Still, they can be useful as a general indicator of how a team is performing.

In early May, the Toronto Blue Jays were facing the Tampa Bay Rays at the time. The Blue Jays were 16-11, and the over/under record books said that the Rays were 16-11 as well, which would make for a very interesting over/under matchup. Let’s look at how both teams performed throughout the season. The Blue Jays won 8 of their last 11 games to close the season and were, in fact, the only team in baseball to have a winning record when it came to the over/under. They also outscored their opponents 141-114, which is a rather large discrepancy between the two numbers. The discrepancy in this case illustrates the fact that although over/under records can be very accurate for a particular game, they can be misleading if applied to the entire season or career of a team.

Career Numbers Can Be More Accurate

One of the best things about baseball is that it is a team sport. Typically, the success of one team member helps the entire squad. Take a look at the Detroit Tigers this season. Justin Verlander had a very good year, posting an 18-5 record with a 2.67 ERA. However, he relied heavily on the defense of his teammates. Only 21% of his earned runs came from the field, which is the 4th lowest total among qualified pitchers in baseball. Similarly, Josh Tomlin had a very good rookie season, going 10-5 with a 2.93 ERA, but only 42.5% of his innings were saved by his defense. Obviously, the defense of other teams was also very good this season, which is one of the main reasons the over/under records were so highly accurate.

Run Differential Is The Best Indicator Of Success

In many ways, the run differential is the ultimate indicator of a team’s success. It takes into account both the number of runs a team scores (or allows to score) and the number of runs it gives up. Last season, the Oakland Athletics, under the guidance of manager Bob Melvin, led the major leagues in both runs scored (839) and allowed (617), for a combined 1,456 runs. Their +363 run differential was the best in the major leagues, and it earned them a spot in the postseason where they faced the Kansas City Royals. In that game, the Athletics went 2 for 22 with runners in scoring position and were 3 for 17 when the game was not in doubt. This season, the A’s are off to a very good start as well, scoring 389 runs in their first 30 games, which is the 2nd best in the major leagues, and giving up only 258, which is 2nd best as well. So, far this season, the A’s are 10 for 21 with RISP, which is the best such mark in the major leagues. Obviously, the defense behind the A’s pitching has helped as well, including the recent acquisition of Andrew Triggs.

Strikeouts And Walks Are Important

While batting average and home runs are important, it is important to note that a team can still have a good offensive performance even if its batters hit.100, as long as they make plenty of outs. It’s the same with walks and strikeouts. Only 23.8% of the Athletics’ runs this season came from their offense, which is the 4th lowest total in baseball. However, they are 7th in walks (393) and 12th in strikeouts (1271), which is why their offense has been so effective this season. In fact, only 2 teams in baseball have a lower combined number of walks and strikeouts than the Athletics, the Cleveland Indians and the New York Mets. While it’s always exciting to see the ball fly out of the park, knowing that your team is on the right track to prosperity because of its strong defense and low-hitting is the ultimate thrill. It takes a lot of walks and strikeouts to get there, but it’s definitely worth it.

Consider Team Effect

All stats are based on a particular group of players and are subject to change, so they aren’t always that trustworthy. However, the effect that teams have on each other is usually a constant. This is especially relevant when considering the under/over records, as teams are always better when they play with more runs allowed and more scores. Take the Chicago Cubs and their 2015 season for example. They had a phenomenal pitching staff that led the league in WHIP (Walks and Hits per inning pitched). Their starters had an overall 2.83 ERA, the best in the league, and they led the league in innings pitched (396.2). The problem is that their offense didn’t perform well, as they hit only.229, good for 12th in the league, with only 4 home runs. The pitchers did their part, as the Cubs only gave up 1.3 runs per game, the 3rd lowest total in the majors. Still, when you consider the effect that the pitching had on the rest of the team, it’s no wonder that only 23.8% of the runs were scored by the offense. Playing with more runs allowed always makes for a more exciting game, but, in the long term, it can also hurt team performance if the underlying numbers don’t change much. For example, a team that consistently allows a lot of runs may become overmatched if the runs aren’t going their way. The flip side is that a team that limits the runs usually has a better chance of winning even when its offense isn’t performing well.

Use Injuries And Exhaustion To Your Advantage

It is important not to ignore the impact that injuries and exhaustion have on a baseball team. Last season, the New York Yankees had one of the most dominant offenses in baseball history. They scored 562 runs in only 585 games, the most in the major leagues. However, during that time, they also lost 104 runs because of injuries and illness, which is the highest total in the major leagues, and it dropped them to 4th place in the AL. On the other side, the Royals, who had the highest combined number of games lost to injury (62) and illness (52) in the AL, had the lowest combined runs scored (477) and batting average (.226). It’s important to note that while injuries and illness can be devastating, they can also be a valuable learning experience for younger players who are just breaking in to the majors. Being able to analyze injuries and illness can provide an edge when it comes to identifying weaknesses and working on solutions. For example, the Tampa Bay Rays had the highest total of batters who went on the disabled list (134) and the Chicago Cubs had the highest average of days lost to injury and illness (26.4). While it can be tough to watch your favorite team lose, knowing that there is a reason for it can make it easier to bear. Injuries are a part of the game, but they can also be used to your advantage if you know what to look for.