How to Bet on the NFL Spread: How to Use the Spread to Your Advantage

In sports betting, the line movement is an important part of analyzing and exploiting betting opportunities. In the world of football, the line is rarely ever static, so understanding what is going on and being able to take advantage of it can significantly increase your winnings.

Finding this edge is a lot easier said than done. While analyzing the spread is an important part of any football fan’s life, it can be difficult to know exactly what to look for and how to interpret the information correctly. In this article, we will discuss how to bet on the NFL spread using statistical and analytical tools to find edge in the most efficient manner possible.

How to Bet On The Spread Using Statisical Tools

When people think of betting on football, images of sweaty men in expensive suits and plenty of money usually come to mind. While this kind of betting is quite popular, you should always remember that odds change all the time, so even the best-laid plans can go awry.

In the world of online betting, the lines are accessible to everyone, which means you can place any wager you want, anytime you want, on any game you choose. This convenience often goes hand-in-hand with increased volatility, meaning there is more fluctuation and movement in the betting world than there is in the world of sports.

Because of this, utilizing statistical tools to gain an edge is a must. Let’s take a look at how to use a few of the most useful statistical tools to assess the spread and figure out where and when to place our bets.

The Over/Under The Over/Under (O/U) stat is one of the more common and most useful tools when it comes to betting on the spread. Simply put, the O/U tool gives you the probability of winning money on a given wager. Let’s take a closer look at how it works.

The O/U tool provides the over/under (O/U or -/+) odds for the current game. These are simply the odds of the game ending in a given direction. For example, if you wanted to bet on the Indianapolis Colts +3.5 against the Buffalo Bills, the O/U tool would tell you that there is an 83% chance the game will end in a victory for the Colts.

The reason the O/U tool is so valuable is because it takes the guesswork out of deciding how to wager. If you aren’t sure which team to bet on or if you want to make a parlay and combine two or more teams, the O/U tool will give you the exact odds you need to get started. In this case, the 83% chance of the Colts winning would be enough information for you to make a confident and profitable wager.

On the flip side, the under/over (U/O or +/–) stat is used when you want to bet on the underdogs. These are teams that most people believe will lose, but for some reason or another, you disagree. The under/over stat gives you the probability of a loss, so if you think the team has a good chance of winning, you would use this tool to place a wager on the underdogs. For example, if you wanted to bet on the Tennessee Titans -3.5 against the Baltimore Ravens, the U/O tool would tell you that there is a 50% chance the Ravens will win the game.

The Vegas line The Vegas line (also known as the point spread or the over/under line) is updated frequently throughout the season, so you can use it as a benchmark for assessing the spread. This line is typically the result of public betting or parlays, so it is generally accepted as the current line between people who bet on that game. In some cases, the line will be the input of oddsmakers who believe one team is a strong contender and the other is a weak one. In other situations, the lines will form due to line movement from bookmakers, who may have taken a liking to one team or player and are trying to push their wagers to win.

The main drawback to using the Vegas line is that you can’t bet on it. This means you either have to wait for games to settle before placing a wager, or you have to use a complicated formula to figure out the best odds for a given bet. However, for the most part, it is a useful tool and can give you a good idea of the current outlook for the upcoming game.

Point spreads and Over/Under Odds Explained

A point spread is simply the difference in points between two teams. For example, the New England Patriots are currently favored to beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point. This is indicated by the -1 point spread, or the Patriots are +1 point favorites.

A point spread can be used with any two teams you choose, but it is most often seen with teams that are directly competing for supremacy. If you are interested in creating spread bets with non-competing teams, you can use a service like MyBookie which provides a point spread API so you can get real-time odds for any NFL matchup you want. In this case, you would select the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs as your two playing teams, and within seconds you will see the point spread along with the current betting odds for that game.

The main advantage of using a point spread is that it takes the guesswork out of deciding which team to bet on or how to wager. You don’t need to look at the team’s previous records or any sort of analytical metrics to figure out which team is most likely to win the game. If two teams are within one point of each other, the line will fluctuate frequently throughout the season, so you can’t put a precise figure on which one will win.

Sometimes the oddsmakers get it wrong and the spread ends up favoring the team that is not supposed to win, but you can minimize the risk of this happening by using the over/under odds option. Let’s take a look at how they work.

The over/under odds are the difference in points between two teams that are either winning or losing with an equal probability of occurring. This can be a little tricky to figure out, so here is an example with the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots are +3.5 favorites to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is due in large part to Tom Brady being the greatest quarterback of all time and Bill Belichick being the greatest coach of all time. The spread gives the illusion that the Patriots are actually a weaker team than their record indicates (2-2 against the spread in the past four weeks). Conversely, the Chiefs are a very strong team (7-0 ATS in the past eight weeks) and it is a shame that their win column is currently empty.

In some cases, the over/under stat can be used to create a trend. If you are looking for long-term money-making opportunities, you can either go with the Patriots this week or the Chiefs next week. Of course, this is assuming you figure out which team will be the better option.

The main advantage of using over/under odds is that it takes the guesswork out of deciding which team to bet on or how to wager. In a nutshell, the over/under tool provides you with the probability of winning for two teams, which makes it easier to decide where and how to put your wager. If you are new to betting, this is what you should start out with. It is the simplest and most straight-forward way to analyze and evaluate the betting options for a game.

How to Bet On The Spread Using Analytical Tools

Sometimes, rather than guessing which team will win based on a point spread or lines, you can use analytical tools to assess the outcomes of a game and figure out which team is most likely to win based on a number of variables. This is where the guesswork comes in, but since you have the data to work with, you can remove a great deal of the uncertainty and risk involved with betting.

Determining which team is most likely to win based on a number of variables is a process known as handicapping. When it comes to sports betting, most people are either very good at it or they are terribly bad at it. If you fall into the first category, you can use statistical tools like the Elo rating to determine which team you should back, while the second category should look into less reliable options like the point spread and lines to make their wagers.

Elo Rating

The Elo rating is a method of objectively measuring the strength of a sports team or an individual player. This number takes into account all statistical factors like point differential, strength of schedule, and upcoming opponent to produce a unique number that indicates a team’s or player’s overall status.