Betting odds can fluctuate greatly, and it is often difficult to get an accurate feel for the current state of play without constantly monitoring prices or relying on opinion polls. That being said, it is possible to gain a general sense of the betting landscape with a little bit of research and some keen observation. In this article, we will discuss some of the ways that you can get an indicative guess at the electoral outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The Trends And Forecasts Of The Predictive Market
One of the most reliable and popular sources of information pertaining to the U.S. presidential election is the predictive market. The market accurately gauges the public’s interest in the upcoming election and uses that information to predict the winner. The result is that you get to enjoy the luxury of knowing the winner well before the election takes place, as well as get a good feeling for the current odds of various outcomes. Below, we will discuss some of the major trends and forecasts that the market has published ahead of the 2020 election.
Deep Into The Future
One of the first things to check for when trying to predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is the future of the presidential polling data. Do the recent polls still reflect the public’s interest in the election, or has that interest shifted to somebody or something else? The interest in the election is still there, but perhaps not in the same way as it was a year or two ago. This is important, because if the interest is not there, then the outcome is likely to be affected and could even change the course of U.S. history.
The Youth Vote
One of the main reasons that the 2020 presidential election is such an important one is that it’s the first time in decades that a candidate running for office has actually had the advantage of competing with a younger counterpart. In most years, one or more of the candidates is old enough to be the grandfather of most of the people they’re trying to reach, and this has certainly been the case for the past 70 years or so. The 2020 election represents a generational shift, and it’s one that could have major ramifications for the future of not just the United States but the entire world. The youth vote could decide this election, and based on what we’ve seen so far, it seems likely that it will. Young people are more interested in politics and more engaged with the process than at any other point in recent history, and it shows in the polling data. The share of the vote that this demographic group gave to Trump in 2016 was 33%, compared to 29% for Hillary Clinton and 28% for Bernie Sanders. Trump’s margin of victory was 1.3 million votes across the country. That’s a large chunk of the electorate, and it’s one that could make a massive difference in determining the winner of this election.
The United States is one of the only remaining countries in the world where voting is still restricted to men. Even in countries where women were granted the right to vote decades ago, voting is still largely seen as a man’s responsibility, and for various reasons, that doesn’t seem fair. One of the biggest reasons is that the majority of the population is still reluctant to give women a say in the manner in which the country is run. This is reflected in the 2020 election, as men outnumber women by a ratio of 2 to 1, and the vast majority of the candidates are men as well. It would be a huge step forward for American politics if the next president was a woman, but as we’ve seen throughout history, it’s not quite that simple. Women are still seen as the secondary gender, and while that isn’t always the case, it remains a fact that most of the burden in terms of domestic responsibilities still falls on women. This is unlikely to change any time soon.
The Rising Cost Of Living
The cost of living in the U.S. has become a major issue in the country, and it was one that was largely absent from political discourse until relatively recently. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of food, housing, and utilities have increased by double digits in most cities, and experts predict that these increases will continue throughout the rest of the year. Gas prices have increased by 47% since the start of the year, and the cost of other basic necessities, such as clothing and medical care, have also risen significantly. One of the reasons why Trump has been able to successfully court the suburban, largely female voter is that he’s promised to cut taxes and regulations, which in theory, should make living cheaper. The reality is that most voters don’t see these benefits as directly relating to them. As the cost of living rises, so does the demand for luxury goods and services, and that’s been reflected in the uptick in retail sales. Sales were up 6.8% in September 2020 compared to the same month a year ago, and it’s the first time in 3 years that retail sales have increased. The poor and working class, who are more likely to be affected by these inflationary trends, are more likely to vote for Trump. He has also been successful in attracting voters who feel that the country is headed in the right direction, but that their personal circumstances haven’t improved much. This is certainly the case for many middle class and (mostly) upper middle class white women, who constitute the majority of the swing vote in this election.
The Tight National Voter Turnout
The last time that the U.S. presidential election saw such low voter turnout was 1980, and even then, it was a record low. In that election, only 62.9% of the American electorate bothered to cast a vote, and it was the first presidential election since World War II where fewer than 100,000 people died due to violence. Since then, there have been no presidential elections where hundreds of thousands of people died due to natural disasters or acts of terrorism. This year’s election has the potential to be the highest turnout since 1960, and if election administrators can get a good look at past trends, then there’s a chance that this year’s election could set a new all-time record. The reasons behind the historically low voter turnout in 2020 are myriad, but some experts point to the COVID-19 pandemic and the way in which it affected public life as a whole, including the way that voting was conducted. The fear of contracting the virus and the social distancing measures that became necessary as a result is thought to have significantly dented the public’s desire to congregate in large groups, which in turn lowered turnout. It’s also possible that the pandemic was responsible for some people losing their jobs, and with fewer job opportunities available, those people may have decided that voting wasn’t worth it.
The Battle For The Suburbs
It’s well established that Trump outperformed expectations in terms of votes and margin of victory in cities, but that wasn’t the case in the suburbs. Trump did better than anticipated in the suburbs, but that was probably more a function of him running against someone who was perceived to be considerably less dangerous than he was. The suburbs are typically more affluent, white, and older than the cities, and as such, are generally considered to be more reliable voters. The biggest battle this election is taking place in the suburbs and is being waged largely on social media. For the first time in decades, the presidential election is being fought largely online, and that’s a battlefield that Trump is well-equipped for. It’s estimated that around 45% of adult Americans use social media to get news, and it was previously unavailable to those who didn’t have access to a smartphone, so the vast majority of the population now votes online. The sheer volume of election news and information that people are consuming means that it’s extremely crowded, highly competitive territory.
More Americans Than Ever Before Are Now Registered To Vote
In the lead-up to the midterm elections in November, roughly 7.2 million more Americans were registered to vote than at any previous point in the country’s history. That’s a total of 11.8 million more registered voters than there were in 2016. The most recent data from the U.S. Electionsource shows that there are currently over 92.3 million registered voters in the country, which is around 19.5 million more than the previous record of 83.7 million set in 2014. The 2020 presidential election will undoubtedly see a record number of people registered to vote, and it will be interesting to see if that number swells even higher in the aftermath of the pandemic. The vast majority of those people will be registered Democrats, which is almost certainly a function of the Democratic Party aggressively pursuing voter registration since the beginning of the year. The idea is to get as many people registered as possible, because once those 7.2 million people are registered to vote, it’s virtually impossible to stop them from participating in the political process. That’s a huge advantage for the Democrats, and it’s one that they’re unlikely to lose this year.