What will be the result of next week’s Super Bowl? Much will depend on the handicappers’ ability to forecast the final score, but it’s always fun to make some educated guesses based on current trends.
The Odds on the Under 2.5 Points Spread
The underdogs are usually the subject of many sharpies’ picks in the Super Bowl, and this year is no exception. Unsurprisingly, the spread for next Sunday’s Super Bowl is sitting at 2.5 points, the lowest it’s been since 2007. Could it be that the over/under for the game has finally been settled upon? Hard to say, but it does seem strange that the betting public is so into the underdogs this year.
The Over 2.5 Points Spread Forcing Mistake
The over/under for next week’s Super Bowl is currently set at 2.5 points, which is the lowest it’s been since 2007. This is interesting because the over/under has rarely been this close to the actual point spread in recent years. Since 2014, the over/under has been within a point or two of the actual spread only twice (once in each season). You’d think that with the public backing the underdogs more and more, the over/under would’ve drifted farther and farther away from the actual spread over the years. This year is different.
The Trends In Favor Of The Underdog
In each of the last three Super Bowls, the underdog has won the game. In 2016, the New England Patriots toppled the Atlanta Falcons, 45–40, in overtime. Last year, the Los Angeles Rams stunned the New Orleans Saints, 28–24, in a thrilling NFC Championship Game. Most impressively, the 2015 Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 34–28, in overtime. The trend is clear: underdogs usually triumph in the Super Bowl.
The Trends Against The Underdog
On the other hand, the team coming into a game with the smallest odds usually ends up as the favorite. This applies to all sports, but it’s especially true in the Super Bowl. Since 2000, the team with the largest spread has gone on to win the Super Bowl only twice: in 2003 (Patriots, -3 spread) and 2007 (Redskins, +3 spread).
The Trends In Favor Of The Audience
It’s well known that fans usually favor the team they’re most familiar with. This certainly applies to the Super Bowl. Since 2002, the Super Bowl winner has been the team with the highest audience share. This is probably because the audience is more familiar with the teams in the NFC and AFC. The last three Super Bowls have all featured four teams from the NFC and four teams from the AFC. So it’s no surprise that the audience has rallied around their teams in the conference formerly known as the National Football Conference. This trend is unlikely to reverse itself in the near future.
Betting On Multiple Games
Multiple bettors are popular in the U.S. If you dive into the 2015 Super Bowl odds, you’ll see that the Over/Under for next week’s game is 2.5 points, but you’ll also find a separate line for the next two games. That’s because lots of people are interested in laying bets on the 2016 AFC Championship Game and the 2017 Super Bowl. While it’s great to see interest in all of these games, you have to be careful when placing bets. You don’t want to accidentally include the other games in your wager. You have to bet on the Super Bowl alone.
Steelers In The Super Bowl?
The oddsmakers at Bovada have the New England Patriots as slight favorites to win next Sunday’s Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t done yet. They’re still alive in the AFC Championship Game, and they’re still a threat to win the whole thing. Although it would be truly epic if the defending champions repeated, it’s not likely to happen. The Patriots are favored because they’re ranked higher than the Steelers, but it’s also likely that New England is playing better football at the moment.
It’s important to keep in mind that NFL handicapping is very different from fantasy football drafting. In fantasy football, you are trying to build a team of talented players, while in NFL handicapping, you are looking for a winner. If you’re playing fantasy football, it’s usually best to avoid laying huge points/game futures on one or two players. The key to winning is to have a good mix of offense and defense, and to take care of the football. While it’s fun to dream big, if you’re looking for a good profit, it’s usually best to sit this one out.