Trump’s Odds of Being Elected President

If you’ve been watching TV news or following US politics in recent months, then you know that things are pretty crazy right now.

On one side, we have the Democrats, who want to keep the status quo and fight to preserve the global order as we know it.

On the other side, we have the Republicans, who want to shake things up and bring change.

And in the middle we have Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president of the United States.

Yes, Trump is the polar opposite of what Democrats and most Republicans want right now. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that he’s currently the leader of his party and has a very real chance at winning the White House in November.

Here’s a look at the numbers behind Trump’s odds of becoming president.

Trump’s Electability

You might be wondering how you could win the White House with a political party that’s never held it before. Can a Republican really become president?

The answer is yes, and multiple recent polls confirm it. According to Gallup, more than 2 in 3 Americans want to see a person of another party win the White House in 2020. But don’t be fooled — this includes majorities of both Democrats and Republicans.

While Trump was once considered unelectable, the public has gradually begun to see him as a possible president. An SNS Research survey from earlier this year found that 49% of respondents see Trump as ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ electable. That’s compared to 38% who feel the same way about Biden.

“If the past is any indication, the vast majority of Americans will eventually come to believe that Donald Trump is electable. But it will take time. And there’s still a chance that he could lose. And there’s also always the chance that somebody better will come along. But for now, at least, Trump has opened up a real opportunity for someone else,” noted political analyst and pollster Kellyanne Conway in a statement.

The Midterm Effect

Aside from Trump’s newfound electability, another factor that could play a role in his surprising appeal is the rise of the so-called “Midterms Matter” movement. Led by progressive groups like Swing Left and People for Bernie, the movement aims to get Democrats elected in record numbers in the fall.

The theory behind this is that Trump is unpopular primarily among Democrats and minorities, and those voters tend to be energized by midterm election results. In other words, if Democrats can pick up a few seats in the Senate and House in November, it might force a reconsideration of Trump’s odds of becoming president.

The theory seems to have merit. According to a new NBC poll, just 37% of respondents have confidence in Trump to do the right thing in world affairs. By comparison, 56% have confidence in Biden.

The Favorability Factor

One of the more interesting and unpredictable aspects of the 2020 election is how the candidates will perform in the polls. Some, like Biden, are largely unknown commodities and could struggle to gain name recognition. Others, like Trump, have established themselves as uniquely polarizing figures.

But despite the differences in name recognition and favorability, it’s important to keep in mind that all the candidates share a common bond — they’re all seen as polarizing figures who divide voters rather than unify them. That shared, polarizing nature is precisely why multiple reputable polls have shown that voters aren’t necessarily choosing which candidate they like the most, but rather which one they find the easiest to dismiss.

Who’s in First?

The early voting contests have already begun in several states, which is when things really start to pick up. In fact, the first ballots will be cast in some states as early as next week! So if you’re feeling adventurous, now might be the right time to register and vote.

Some political analysts believe that whoever wins the largest share of early votes will emerge as the clear front-runner in the race. And depending on the state and how the votes are counted, that candidate could be anyone.

The Popular Vote

While the Electoral College was established to elect the president, the majority of Americans now live in a country where the popular vote decides the winner. This largely reflects the fact that rural voters prefer to live in smaller towns and cities, which means that electoral votes from large metropolitan areas don’t always determine the election. In this case, the popular vote will probably choose Trump, but it could go either way.

Final Takeaway

It’s always difficult to predict who will become the next president of the United States after an election. But after months of uncertainty and unpredictability, it seems that the world might finally have found a peaceful solution — at least as far as one part of the world is concerned. Thanks to Trump, the race for the White House is finally starting to make sense, which is exciting news for those who want to see change happen in Washington.