Trebles, Doubles and Fours in Betting

It is well known that four-leaf clovers are good luck charms. While it is true that sometimes you need a little help from fate when it comes to sports betting, there is also another type of “good luck” charm that can help you out. Sometimes, when two or more teams are involved in a head-to-head matchup, the results can be quite surprising. This is because, statistically, due to the small sample size, we expect the results to be close to even. However, as human nature often seeks to do, it can sometimes work in reverse and produce some truly bizarre results. This is when we find ourselves in the world of “trebles, doubles and fours” in sports betting.

What Are Trebles, Doubles And Fours In Betting?

Let’s first discuss the three terms used in the title of this piece:

  • Trebles: This is when two sports teams are involved in a head-to-head matchup with each team having a 3% edge over the other. For instance, the Los Angeles Lakers have a 3% advantage over the Miami Heat in NBA futures as of May 8, 2019.
  • Doubles: This happens when two sports teams are involved in a head-to-head matchup with each team having a 2% edge over the other. For instance, the New York Jets have a 2% advantage over the Dallas Cowboys in NFL futures as of May 8, 2019.
  • Fours: This is when four sports teams are involved in a head-to-head matchup with each team having a 1% advantage over the other. An example would be the Pittsburgh Panthers having a 1% advantage over the New Orleans Saints in the 2019 NFL playoffs as of April 19, 2020.

What makes these scenarios so strange is that, for the most part, they should not happen. Two teams with a 3% edge typically does not produce much in the way of outcomes different from what we would expect to see from a game with a normal edge. However, in cases where there is a 4% or 6% or 8% advantage, we see some truly bizarre occurrences.

Let’s examine how this oddity arises.

Why Do We See So Many Four-Leaf Clovers When There Is A Hitting Deck And Pool Mixed With Dice?

When two or more teams are involved in a head-to-head matchup, the game contains a certain amount of randomness that is not found in a typical one-on-one or 3-on-3 game. Since they are relying on pure chance to produce an edge, it is not surprising that we see so many four-leaf clovers arise when there is a hitting deck and pool mixed with dice. However, why we see so many more than usual is because in cases where there is a four-leaf clover, the odds are in the shooter’s favor. This is because there are actually 16 four-leaf clovers in a deck of 52 cards. While this may not sound like a lot, when we consider that there are also 52 cards in a full deck of cards, this represents a 4% edge in the shooter’s favor. For example, in a $100 SportsBetting.com NBA futures bet, you would win $36.67 if the Lakers hit a 4-leaf clover and the Heat hit a three-leaf clover. In a $100 wager on the Super Bowl, you would win $22.50 if you hit a 4-leaf clover, and you would lose $22.50 in a loss if you did not hit one.

How Does Luck Play A Role In Four-Leaf Clovers And Other Oddities?

There are scenarios where you can actually make some money off four-leaf clovers and other oddities. For example, in the case of the 4% edge, you would win $36.67 on the Lakers – Heat NBA matchup if you hit the four-leaf clover. However, this is slightly different from the case in which you did not hit a four-leaf clover, in which you would have lost $68.67. This is because while hitting a four-leaf clover does not guarantee you will win, it does offer you a much better chance of profiting from a wager. The same can be said about other scenarios, such as the 1% advantage in the Super Bowl.

One important point to make is that while hitting a four-leaf clover does give you a better chance of profiting from a wager, it does not guarantee that you will. In poker, this is called “the house edge” which is the advantage that the casino or bookmaker has over you as a player. In the case of four-leaf clovers and other oddities, this is particularly important to keep in mind.

Statistically Improbable Results

When we consider that there are 52 cards in a full deck of cards and only three possibilities for each card (win, place, or lose), we can begin to see how it is possible for there to be so many four-leaf clovers when there is a hitting deck and pool mixed with dice. If we consider that there are eight four-leaf clovers in a deck of 52 cards, and perform a simple calculation, we find that this represents a 5.7% chance of getting four of a kind in a single draw. While this may not seem like a lot, when we consider that there are 52 cards in a full deck of cards and only three possibilities for each card (win, place, or lose), this represents a statistically improbable result.

In some instances, such as the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers, we see a six-leaf clover which would be an 8.3% chance of getting four of a kind in a single draw. In the 2019 NFL playoffs, we see 13 instances of four-leaf clovers which is a 20% chance of getting four of a kind in a single draw. While it is great that we have technology to make our odds more favorable when playing at online casinos, this is still largely the result of pure luck.

What Is The Psychology Behind The Phenomenon?

When we consider how strange the outcomes of head-to-head matchups can be in sports, it is important to look at the psychology behind the phenomenon. This is because, as human nature seeks to do, it can sometimes work in reverse and produce some truly bizarre results. The same is often said about people who play the lottery and get lucky and win the jackpot. The same is often said about people who play roulette and get lucky and hit a winning combination. The same can be said about sports betting. This is why we should always consider the odds and not get overly excited about hitting a four-leaf clover or getting a double-double, as the odds of this happening are quite low statistically. What is important is that we do not get discouraged about losing a wager as this is part of the fun of throwing down a few bucks and trying our luck at winning some money. A good rule of thumb to keep in mind is this – when in doubt, walkaway, as this will often bring you luck in the long run.