What Does -4.5 Mean in Betting?

The line score in American football represents the score at the end of the game. However, the betting market immediately starts working once the game ends, updating the line and moving the odds in favor or against the teams and players involved in the game. This article will discuss what -4.5 means in betting and how it pertains to you as a sports bettor.

The Importance Of Line Movement

One of the key differences between the sports betting and the casino worlds is how they approach “the line.” In the case of sports betting, particularly in the U.S., the line represents the “most likely” score, as determined by the oddsmakers, and it is not adjusted throughout the course of the game. The only exception is in the case of a tie game, where the line stays in place until the moment the game ends and the scores are determined. The reason for this is simple: if the line starts moving at the end of the game, it usually means that there was public betting going on during the game, and the bookie in question is trying to take advantage of the unexpected action. So, in theory, they can move the line and create more profit for themselves; however, if the line does not move, it usually means that their services were not needed and the money they took in should be returned, in full.

The True Meaning Of A Line Move

Let us take a look at how the line started moving in the 2014 NFL regular season. The Cleveland Browns opened as 9.5-point home underdogs against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. At the time, that score represented the average guess, or “line,” for the game, and it was set by the oddsmakers at Bovada Sportsbook, located in New Jersey. As we all know, the Browns eventually upset the heavily favored Seahawks, winning 27-24. What happened next? The Browns jumped out to a quick 9-0 lead early in the second quarter, and they never looked back. The line eventually moved to 9.5 in favor of the visiting team, the Browns, and the bettor who took advantage of that action made a lot of money. In the case of that game, the Browns’ final score was 33-27.

Moving The Line In The Sportsbooks

Last season, the New England Patriots were heavy favorites, with the majority of the sportsbooks, to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season. The Patriots opened as 17.5-point favorites, or “dog”, with most sites and the over/under for the game was set at 47.5. The public did not agree with the highly favored Patriots, as the Jaguars upset the heavily favored Patriots, 31-28. What happened next? Once the upset was complete, the public quickly moved the line in the opposite direction, sending the Patriots as underdogs to Betting Sites and the over/under was lowered to 36.5.

The Effect Of A Line Movement On Public Confidence

Let us look at another example, this time involving the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners were 4.5-point favorites, or “dog”, to beat the Green Bay Packers in the first game of the season. The odds for the game were set at Bovada at 4.5, with the under/over for the game being set at 7. Green Bay was able to fend off San Francisco, winning 23-17. What happened next? The very next week, the 49ers were 6.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings. Then, after a very competitive game that saw neither team pull away, the 49ers were finally able to upset the heavily favored Vikings, winning 27-23. Finally, in the week after that, the 49ers were 5-point underdogs in a win over the Atlanta Falcons. The line moved continuously throughout the season in that spot, changing from week to week like a revolving door. Many people felt like the line never should have moved to begin with, but in the end, it probably helped the public’s confidence in the 49ers, who went on to win the Super Bowl.

Should You Trust The Line From The Vegas Percentage System?

To answer that question, let us take a quick look back at how the line in question moved throughout the course of the 2014 season. After the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the New England Patriots in the opener, the line opened at 9.5 in favor of New England. The line then moved to 10.5 after the Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins, then moved down to 9.5 after the Patriots lost to the Atlanta Falcons in a comeback effort. The line then moved up to 10.5 after the Patriots won their next two games, before falling all the way back to 9.5 in a loss to the Houston Texans. Since then, the line has stayed at 9.5, which is a loss of about 6% in the opinion of most oddsmakers. So, in theory, for every $100 you bet on that game, you would have earned $6 in profit. But, since the line never moved from 9.5, the actual return on investment would only be $4.50.

So, in summation, you should generally feel good about trusting the line in the case of a home underdog of 2.5 points or less. In the case of a road underdog of two points or more, you should probably stick with your original pick, rather than trying to ride the line, as it probably just takes one game for the line to move in the opposite direction anyway. In conclusion, if you are looking for a consistent profit source in the form of daily fantasy sports, you should probably look elsewhere, as the line is generally not what it seems to be at first glance. Nevertheless, when you are given a fair line, you generally end up with a winner, as demonstrated by the last two paragraphs.