The line move means that the sportsbook has shifted its betting line in favor of (+)/against (-) the home team. A line move can be good/bad news for the home team depending on how the line move happened and the direction it went in.
The -7.5 line move is often used in NFL Football betting to indicate that the point spread has been adjusted to 7.5 points in favor of the home team.
How Did The Line Move In The NFL?
The Chicago Bears played the Atlanta Falcons on October 26, 2019 in the most recent NFL game between the two teams. The game was tied 20–20 at the end of regulation, and the Bears had to go to overtime to win. This was a big game for both teams, as the Bears desperately needed a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, while the Falcons were at the top of the standings with a 13–0 record. Everyone was expecting a high-scoring shootout, but instead it was a defensive struggle that ended in a 20–20 tie. The game went into extra time, and the Falcons managed to outscore the Bears 10–7 in the first overtime period to win.
The line moved in the Falcons’ favor from (-110) to (+105) according to many sportsbooks, in part because the Bears were playing a home game against a division rival while most people believe that home advantage can help a team win. Even when the team performing the action is the same, home games generally attract more bets because there’s a feeling that the visitors aren’t going to get anything done. The Bears were playing at home, and many people expected them to come out swinging.
The line move in the NFL was the result of some serious negotiations between the two sides. After the Bears tied the score in regulation, the lines moved briefly in a way that benefited the visiting Falcons. However, the NFL does not like fix games, and so a replay was held to settle the matter. The replay determined that the lines should never have moved in the first place, and so the officials ordered the lines set at their original positions. This line movement was one of the reasons why the Bears played one of their best games of the season against the Falcons. They could feel that their revenge was on the line, and so they played their best game of the year to win.
What If The Line Move Went In The Wrong Direction?
On the surface, a line move in the wrong direction can sound like good news for the home team. However, things are not always as they appear, and so careful study is required if one is to benefit from a line move. The -7.5 line move in the Bears-Falcons game was in the wrong direction, but not necessarily bad news for the Bears. If the Bears played the same game a week later, they probably would have lost because the line would have moved in their direction. In fact, the line would probably have moved in the Bears’ direction no matter when they played. This is because the -7.5 line move means that things are settled in favor of the home team. The line will continue to move in the same direction until the football betting community is no longer sure which team will win. When this happens, the line will move in a way that is beneficial to the visiting team. Let’s take a quick look at how some important NFL games have played out with a line movement.
2019 NFL Regular Season: Home vs. Away
The first and most important consideration when analyzing the line move is the direction it went in. For the 2019 NFL regular season, teams played a total of 56 home games and 56 away games. Let’s compare those numbers and see how they affect line movement.
Of the 56 home games, 32 ended in a victory for the home team, 19 were a stalemate, and five ended in a loss for the home team. Looking at these numbers, we can see that if the line had moved in the same direction as the final score, the home team would have won 22 of the 56 games and lost 24. The away team would have won 15 of the 56 games and drawn four, leading to an even split. In reality, the home team won 31 games and drew seven, and the away team won 25 and drew 12.
Of the 56 away games, 31 ended in a victory for the away team, 15 were a stalemate, and five ended in a loss for the away team. Looking at these numbers, we can see that if the line had moved in the same direction as the final score, the away team would have won 31 games and drawn 15, leading to an uneven split. The home team would have won 20 games and drawn 16, giving them a small edge over the away team.
In the end, the home team won more games than expected (31–25), and the away team won fewer games than expected (25–31). This can be explained by the fact that the line was moved in the wrong direction, which helped the away team. However, the home team was very happy with how things turned out and were able to exact some revenge against their rival by winning more games than expected. This was not always the case, as home teams had a worse than expected record in six of the eight games where the line moved in the wrong direction. In fact, in five out of the eight games, the line movement was against the home team.
2018 NFL Regular Season: Home vs. Away
The 2018 NFL regular season featured 65 home games and 65 away games. Looking at these numbers, we can see that if the line had moved in the same direction as the final score, the home team would have won 33 games and drawn 23, while the away team would have won 29 and drawn 24. In reality, the home team won 37 games and drew 13, while the away team won 29 and drew 21.
Of the 65 home games, 51 ended in a victory for the home team, 12 were a stalemate, and two ended in a loss for the home team. Among the 65 away games, 44 ended in a victory for the away team, 14 were a stalemate, and one ended in a loss for the away team. Looking at these numbers, we can see that if the line had moved in the same direction as the final score, the home team would have won 43 games and drawn 22, while the away team would have won 32 and drawn 23.
In the end, the home team won more games than expected (37–29), but the away team also won more games than expected (32–30). This can be explained by the fact that the line was moved in the wrong direction, which helped the away team. However, the home team was not pleased with how things turned out and lost more games than expected. Like the 2019 season, the 2018 season was an interesting one for analyzing line movements. In six of the eight games where the line moved in the wrong direction, it was in favor of the away team. This was probably because these teams played each other more often than expected (8 out of a possible 13), and there was no clear favorite. In five out of the eight games where the line moved in the wrong direction, it was against the home team. This probably has something to do with their record in these games; six of the eight games where the line moved against the home team had a final score of less than 20 points, compared to only one out of the eight where it moved in the home team’s favor. This was another low-scoring season for the fans, with an average score of only 17.5 points per game. In conclusion, home teams had a rough season in 2018, as they won only 31 percent of their games while losing 12 percent.
2017 NFL Regular Season: Home vs. Away
The 2017 NFL regular season featured 68 home games and 68 away games. Looking at these numbers, we can see that if the line had moved in the same direction as the final score, the home team would have won 41 games and drawn 27, while the away team would have won 37 and drawn 30. In reality, the home team won 44 games and drew 22, while the away team won 38 and drew 26.
Of the 68 home games, 54 ended in a victory for the home team, nine were a stalemate, and three ended in a loss for the home team. Among the 68 away games, 50 ended in a victory for the away team, 10 were a stalemate, and two ended in a loss for the away team. Looking at these numbers, we can see that if the line had moved in the same direction as the final score, the home team would have won 45 games and drawn 23, while the away team would have won 41 and drawn 26.