Wellnessbites is a company that I co-founded with my wife, Michelle, that creates bite-size videos for YouTube users to enjoy. One of our favorite topics to discuss is betting the NBA Playoffs. We started a Twitter account last year strictly to track the games and results of the NBA Playoffs. One of our first Tweets was a reminder that the first round was only just begun. Since then, we’ve learned a lot about betting the NBA Playoffs and wanted to share some of that knowledge with you. So, here are fourteen things you should know about betting the NBA Playoffs:
1. Learn What To Look For
People ask us all the time about what we look for in betting the NBA Playoffs. The short answer is evasion. We want to avoid having our winnings eaten by the house because the sportsbooks aren’t providing fair value.
To avoid this, we look for teams that aren’t running up huge scores, limiting our winnings should they reach a certain point total. We also want to avoid betting on teams that are already assured of making the playoffs. You can’t go wrong with this strategy! Also, we try to avoid picking against the spread, especially in games where the betting line is within a few points. The spread is usually the most effective betting option when playing against the book due to the oddsmaking bias of the betting shop, meaning they’ll always let you win when they offer the spread.
2. Study The Teams
The first step in knowing how to bet the NBA Playoffs is understanding how the league works. The best way to do this is by studying the teams. You can get a good feel for the level of competition by looking at the team comparisons posted by Chris Hayes of BettingOutsider.com, a resource we recommend regularly.
You also want to familiarize yourself with what makes each team tick. Some of this is in the biographical information we’ve alluded to in earlier bullet points, but it also comes from watching game film and studying statistical analysis. Knowing your opponent will help you form a clear picture of how the games will play out and give you an edge. It’s all about having the edge.
3. Take Advantage Of The Offense
The best defense in basketball is good offense. This is especially important when betting the NBA Playoffs due to the parity in the league. A team that can consistently knock down three-pointers will always find themselves in the right place at the right time when a game reaches the point-scoring stage. If you’re playing against the spread, this is even more important because they’ll always let you win when you’re hitting shots from behind the arc.
To take advantage of this, we look for three-point shooting teams that can score off the dribble. The fewer turnovers the better, especially in the first round. This will minimize the number of points your opponent will score off special teams like the shooting drills that some teams employ.
These are just some of the tactics we use to take advantage of the offense in betting the NBA Playoffs. There are many other ways to win using a different approach, but this is the method we use and recommend to our readers.
4. Watch Team History
Betting the NBA Playoffs is all about having an edge. This doesn’t mean making foolish wagers or blindly following strategies that don’t work. It means using logic and understanding how the league works to your advantage. When studying the teams, you should look not only at their current standing but also at their histories. This will give you a good idea of how each team will play and how they’ll respond to certain strategies. If you’re new to betting the NBA Playoffs, reading team histories is a great way to learn about the league and how it works. This will also give you a good idea of when and where to bet based on the strength of the teams.
5. Draft Grounds For Certainty
One of the beauties of the NBA is that the playoffs are a great opportunity to win big. The downside is that the odds of losing increase significantly which means you’re less likely to win small wagers. To avoid this, we look for grounds for surety when making wagers. We don’t want to put ourselves in situations where we don’t know whether or not we’ll win. The only way to ensure you’ll win is by betting on a favorable outcome when the over/under is within your wager limits. This is where stats and logic come in.
There are grounds for surety in the NBA when picking against the spread. The likelihood of an under or over exceeding your limit is low enough that you can feel secure in making a play against the spread. Drafting grounds for surety is also important when picking against the book, but it takes a little bit of luck to see this kind of betting succeed. When you have grounds for surety, it shows you’re doing something right and the odds of getting it right are in your favor.
6. Take Advantage Of The Shooting Guards
The shooting guard is one of the most essential positions in any NBA team’s playoff lineup. The best teams in the league have multiple shooting guards that can knock down three-pointers. To take advantage of this, we look for shooting guards that shoot well from behind the arc and can drive the ball inside the rim. If you’re playing against the spread, this is even more important because they’ll always let you win when you’re hitting shots from behind the arc.
The shooting guard position is a volatile one in the NBA, especially in the first round. There are plenty of shoot-first guards that will take up the opportunity to put up points and wins for their team. However, this is usually not the case and these players usually flame out quickly once the playoffs begin. Studying game film, watching for tells and listening to the assistant coaches is the way to know if a shooting guard is worth betting on.
7. Watch For Teammates
While we’re on the subject of the shooting guard, it’s important to mention that some of the best shooting guards in the NBA play for teams with other great shooting guards. This is because the position is highly tutored and highly solved routinely in the league. If you’re playing against the spread, watching for your teammates, especially guys on the same team, is a great way to know how each player will react when going up for a shot. Studying how the other guys on your team fight for position is critical in figuring out how to play the shooting guard position to the best of your ability.