Bettors will tell you that a team’s winning percentage can vary from line to line, but this is far from true. If you happen to be laying odds of plus-2 or greater, then you’re experiencing some very specific and limited fluctuations.
Let’s take a look at what this means and how it affects your bets.
The Basics
When you’re placing a bet on a sporting event, like a football game or a horse race, you’re usually placing it based on the final score of the game. If the favorites win, you make money. If the underdogs win, you lose money. Simple enough, right?
It isn’t. There are dozens of variables that could affect the outcome of the game, and you wouldn’t know which one is responsible for the win or loss until the end. For example, did the quarterback throw an interception or fumble the ball? Was the defense making more or less effort than usual? Was the referee doing a good job or bad job?
There are ways for you to make sure that your bet is going to pay off. You can look into whether or not the oddsmakers have an accurate handle on all the variables. You can check the history of the teams to see how they’re performing in their games. If you’re feeling lucky, you can also guess on the outcome of the game and see if the bookmaker gives you enough credit for the price of a tequila.
More Than Meets The Eye
The way that betting lines work is that the bookmaker will offer you a certain amount of credit for a certain price. The price will be dictated by the amount of action (i.e., bets) on that side of the line. The action is usually measured in units of $1, $2, or $5 wagers. A $5 wager would be the equivalent of five $1 wagers. The number of units that are wagered on a side determines the size of the credit that you’ll receive upon winning the wager. If you bet $2 on a side and the team wins, you’ll earn $10 in return. If you bet $2 on a side and the team loses, you’ll lose $5.
When a team wins by more than two touchdowns (i.e., the favorites win), then the team’s winning percentage will be higher than expected because the line is setting high due to the large amount of action on that side of the line. The team will have scored more than two touchdowns (i.e., it is a landslide victory), and the bookmaker will reward you for taking this bet with a more generous payout. In these types of cases, the team’s winning percentage might reach 76% or 77% instead of the usual 65% to 70%.
Limited Variables
When a team wins by less than two touchdowns (i.e., the underdogs win), then this is a sign that the line isn’t giving enough credit to the team for winning and is instead punishing the bettor for betting on the underdogs. In these types of cases, the team’s winning percentage will likely drop significantly because the line is offering less credit than expected for this type of victory. The line might set a -2 or -3 for this type of win, resulting in losing money instead of making it.
Action
Action is the last variable that we talked about but didn’t cover yet. This is the amount of money that’s wagered on a side of a wagering game. The more action that’s placed on a side, the more generous the line will be in its credit offering. Did you place a $20 bet on the Green Bay Packers last season? If so, then the Packers had a pretty high winning percentage because a lot of people were betting on them. This is why the line opened up significantly on their favor last season. The more action that’s placed on a side, the more generous the line will be in its credit offering.
Winning Percentages
Taking all of this into account, we can see that sometimes a team’s winning percentage can be significantly affected by the score of the game and which teams are playing, but in most cases, it will be limited to whether or not the team won by less than or more than two touchdowns. When this happens, then it’s usually a good idea to reexamine the team’s history because this could be an indicator of something very specific and one-of-a-kind about that team. This is why it’s best to bet on teams with few or no recent historical wins because this is usually a sign that there’s something wrong with the team. The bookmaker is probably just being extra careful because this team might be a threat.
The key thing to keep in mind is that a team’s winning percentage can vary from line to line but that it’s usually limited to whether or not the team won by less than or more than two touchdowns. In the vast majority of cases, the winning percentage for a team will be relatively consistent from one line to the next because the bookmaker usually sets the line based on the amount of action placed on that side of the bet. It’s only in very specific and limited circumstances that a team’s winning percentage will fluctuate from one line to the next. If you’re looking for a way to make money on sporting events, then you should focus on finding consistent winning percentages for each team. This way, you’re less likely to lose your money in the long run and can make more informed and confident bets.