Going on tilt in sports betting means that the odds of a certain outcome are significantly in favor of that outcome. The term is most commonly used in regard to basketball, but it can be applied to any sport where the possible outcomes are relatively low, but one particular outcome is significantly more likely than the others. In other words, the oddsmakers have definitely taken notice and have treated you, the bettor, well. It’s pretty exciting when that happens. Just remember: this can be a very good thing or a very bad thing, so always keep an open mind.
Here are some examples of when going on tilt might be a good thing.
Odds Are Very Small
In low-odds situations, going on tilt can give you a leg up on the competition. It’s not uncommon for the oddsmakers to revise the line once they realize that it’s you, the bettor, who has them eating out of the palm of your hand. Once the line is revised to be a little more in your favor, you can ride the wave of excitement all the way to the bank. As long as you don’t keep on going overtime, you’re usually able to cash out well before the situation gets back to even. Small odds and a win situation is exactly what you want to strive for as a bettor. This is why going on tilt is sometimes referred to as being in a ‘slump’ or in a ‘penny-wise’ situation.
For the most part, sports betting is determined by the number of home runs a pitcher will allow in an inning. While this may seem like an abstract way to measure pitching prowess, it actually measures how well the ball hangs in the air. Take Oakland A’s pitcher Jason Vargas for example. Over the course of the 2015 season, Vargas went 7–0 with a 1.50 ERA, striking out 44 and walking just 14 in 66 2/3 innings of work. In other words, 1 out of every 17 pitches he threw was a strike. According to sabermetrics website, Baseball Savant, this is known as putting up a “one-hit wonder”. When an athlete puts up a similar performance over a full season, it’s generally considered a sign that the player is due for a down year. This is probably the simplest way to measure how well your favorite pitcher is doing. If you look at his stats over the past few years, you’ll notice that he’s been steadily declining. If you want to have a better chance of winning, you should probably look for another pitcher to back.
Quality Of Contact
One of the most important factors that affect a pitcher’s success is the quality of the contact he makes with the ball. In the graph below, you’ll see that the x-axis is the quality of contact, as measured by linear weights, and the y-axis is the number of home runs per 9 innings. From this point on, you’ll notice a trend: the more contact the pitcher makes with the ball, the more home runs he will allow. In other words, hitters are more often caught off-guard when pitchers make solid, hard contact with the ball than when they make contact with the ball on the edge. One of the major reasons for this is that the latter usually results in line drives, which are more easily caught by the defense than fly balls. The takeaway from all of this is that you should always favor pitchers with better “quality of contact”. What this means in practice is that you should look for a pitcher with a respectable K/9 rate and who also tends to induce a lot of ground balls. The combination of the two usually means that the pitcher will keep the ball in the park and allow his team to score more frequently.
Runners In The Alley
Another situation in which going on tilt can be a good thing is when there are runners in the alley and the pitcher’s defense is able to get them out. This is a particularly aggressive strategy and isn’t for the faint-hearted. When you’re using it, you basically want to bet on the runner’s homeruns as soon as possible because it is very difficult to come back from a 2-run lead in the eighth inning or later. Of course, there are risks associated with this strategy, but sometimes, they’re worth it. It’s always better to be over rather than under in these situations.
Infield flips are a form of pitching where the pitcher uses his glove as a blocking device in front of the plate. This allows him to get the hitter out with a variety of different pitches. If you’ve ever watched a game and seen this strategy being used, you’ll know exactly what I mean. While it can be a very effective way to get a hitter out, it’s important to note that it doesn’t always work.
Take, for example, the 2016 Atlanta Braves. They had one of the best pitchers in baseball, Sean Newcomb, who was 18–5 with a 3.05 ERA and a K/9 rate of 7.46, and one of the best infields in baseball, Michael Freeman and Nick Markakis. Despite all of this, they only had a winning record because they had the fifth-best defense in the league, according to Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). Infield flips can be effective if the pitcher is confident that the defense will back them up, but the success of this strategy depends on how well they fare in the field.
Why is it Important to Look At The Total Over/Under When Betting On Pitching?
When you’re placing a baseball wager and the moneyline is included in the total, it’s important to look at the over/under amount, not the net profit or loss, as the under is applied first. This isn’t to say that you should never wager on the total, just that you should know what you’re doing.
As mentioned earlier, one of the most important factors that affect the probability of an event, or more particularly a baseball game, is the number of runs that will be scored. With that being said, runs are also one of the most difficult things to predict. This is why most sportsbooks offer “over” or “under” odds rather than “points to win” or “margins to win”. They want to attract both betting enthusiasts and casual fans, so they offer the most popular betting options rather than just focusing on one type of wager.
Even though the odds are always in your favor when betting on baseball, it’s still important to keep in mind that there’s no telling how many runs a pitcher will give up or how many RBIs a batter will hit. When you’re in a slump or in a penny-wise situation, it can be very frustrating to bet on the total rather than the lines, but it can also be very rewarding if the over or under is in your favor. Most importantly, when you win, it’s always nice to know that at least part of your winnings came from a wager that you had confidence in, rather than one that you had to beg for money to cover.
How Do You Know When to Exit Tilt?
Exit tilt is usually a sign that the odds have shifted in the other direction and that you’re now in a losing situation. One of the most important factors that can lead to this is if the game goes beyond the allotted time, or if a game is suspended due to weather conditions or darkness. In these cases, the odds will usually shift in favor of the home team. Another important factor is if the pitcher gives up a couple of runs in the first inning and doesn’t seem to recover. If this happens, it usually means that the pitcher has “run out of gas” and is fatigued, which makes him more susceptible to giving up home runs or allowing additional runs to score. This is why it’s usually a bad idea to bet on pitching after the first inning.