In American Football, a ‘push’ is when a team scores a touchdown or reaches a goal line and maintains a lead by more than 10 points (or the same if they were behind at the beginning of the 4th quarter). You’ll often see the score at the end of the game as ‘X vs Y’ where ‘X’ is the total points scored and ‘Y’ is the amount of points left to be scored. When a push happens in American Football, the excitement and atmosphere is usually tremendous, but there is also a significant amount of stress as the game continues for so long. If you place a bet on the game, then you’ll want to make sure that you’re not placing too much of a risk on yourself as a lot can, and often does, go wrong. One of the major reasons for a push in American Football is the inability of the teams to perform well over 40% of the time, which makes most bettors want to avoid placing any significant wagers on these games. Fortunately, there are always exceptions to the rule, and sometimes these exceptions are the games that you’ll want to lay down some serious cash on. To save you the legwork, we’ll walk you through a step-by-step process of how to avoid losing big money on football games on which a push happens and instead earn you a nice profit.
Study The Spreadsheet
When you hear the term ‘point spread’ in American Football, it refers to the difference between the points scored by the two teams (‘the total’), all other things being equal. For example, if the points scored by the two teams are ‘X’ and ‘Y’ with ‘X’ winning by 7, then the point spread, or the difference between ‘X’ and ‘Y’ is 7 points. A point spread of 7 points means that you’re willing to wager $100 that the other team will score more points than your team (in this case, 7); if your team scores more points, then you win the bet. If there is no spread in the game, then it’s a push (no betting is allowed in a regulation American Football game). Understanding this fundamental concept of point spreads and how they work will help you make much smarter bet choices and give you an edge over the casual bettor who doesn’t care much for in-depth statistical analysis. A good place to start is the NFL website as they have nearly all the information you could ever want or need about the league. It’s important to note that the point spread changes dynamically as the game goes on and can vary from half a point to a full point or more, depending on how the game is unfolding and who is winning (or losing).
Watch The Gameplay
One of the things that can help you decide if a push is going to happen or not is the quality of the game. If the quarterback is struggling, then it can often lead to bad pass patterns and eventually sacks and interceptions, which will reduce the score. Inexperienced quarterbacks and those plagued by injuries are also prone to more turnovers, which could lead to more points being scored by the other team. The better the quality of the game, the less likely it is that a push is going to happen. If you can see that the defense is playing well and limiting the other team’s points, then there is a good chance that your team will be able to keep the score close (within 10 points or so) and avoid a push.
Consider The Weather Conditions
If you live in an area where it snows a lot, then you’ll know that football is a difficult game to play in. The conditions are usually icy and muddy which make it hard to move around and the ball can quickly become treacherous to catch. This, in turn, can affect the scoring significantly. If you live in an area where it doesn’t snow a lot, then the conditions are typically dry and warm, which, while still being challenging, aren’t as bad as when it snows. You’ll want to avoid betting on games played in extreme weather conditions as the scoring could be heavily impacted by the playing surface. In terms of betting, you’ll want to avoid betting on outdoor games in extreme weather conditions as the scoring is often impacted by the elements (think of an outdoor game at night or on a rainy day).
Consider The Vegas Line
You may have seen the ‘over-under’ written on the football scores before a game, which refers to what oddsmakers believe the final score will be. This is usually a good indication of whether or not a push is going to happen as the oddsmakers would ideally like for the final score to be as close to their assumed score as possible (in this case, a total of 44). If you’re unfamiliar with what the oddsmakers think, then it can be a little tricky to know if their assumptions are correct or if they are simply trying to confuse you so that you’ll place a wager on the wrong team. It is usually a good idea to stay away from the oddsmakers and look at the point spread (as mentioned before) to determine whether or not a push is going to happen.
Use Your Head
Last but not least, we want to remind you that just because a game is on television or the radio doesn’t mean that it’s absolutely certain to win or lose. Even though Thursday Night Football is usually shown on national television, the spread for that game has often been bigger than the spread for the game that follows it. One of the most important things for you to do if you decide to bet on football is to use your head and apply common sense. If you look at the stats for a game, then you’ll see a clear pattern which will make it easy for you to decide which team you think will win. If you’re ever in doubt, then it’s usually a good idea to go with the team that you’ve played before or simply the team that you think is better. Sometimes the favorites come in and surprise everyone by winning, but that isn’t the norm; it just happens occasionally. Sometimes the team that you think is worse can win than the one that you deem to be the best simply because of poor betting lines. Think of it this way: would you rather be wrong about the game you’re betting on or the team that you support?
Now that you’re armed with the basics of identifying a push in American Football, you should have no problem avoiding losing big money on games that you’ll inevitably regret. Of course, this doesn’t mean that you’ll be able to win big every time, but it will certainly help you avoid the vast majority of losses. Good luck out there.