The idea behind ‘alternative rushing yards’ is to take the traditional approach to rushing yards and apply it in a different way. So instead of just looking at the number of yards a player runs for, you take into consideration other factors such as the game situation, the down, distance, and time.
The term ‘alternative’ refers to the way in which we as humans perceive the world. We have our standard ways of looking at things and then there are different ways in which we can approach the same problem. In the case of rushing yards, we have ‘normal’ ways of looking at the stat and then ‘alternative’ ways of approaching the same problem. The idea behind ‘alt’ rushing yards is to question the status quo and see things in a different way.
We’re all aware of the game-changing plays that occur with regularity in the National Football League. However, the majority of the game is played at a much slower pace and is composed of plays that don’t always end in an exciting finish. In reality, only around 40% of a football game is typically decided by the special teams and offense only accounts for around 30% of the game. So in order to make the most out of the game, it’s important to focus on the little things that happen before, during, and after the plays on the field. This is where alternative metrics come in.
Why Should You Bet On Alt Rushing Yards?
For years, the NFL has been the gold standard of American football and many consider it to be the most popular sport in the world. However, even though the standard methods to evaluate a running back have produced very successful results, they are definitely not perfect. As we’ve established, only around 40% of a football game is decided by the special teams and offense only accounts for around 30% of the game. This means that there are other factors contributing to the outcome of a game that we haven’t taken into consideration. In the case of rushing yards, the factors that we have considered are:
The Down and Distance
One of the most important factors that determine the outcome of a game is the down and distance. Typically, coaches will tell their running backs to attempt to run the ball on first down and to limit their pass attempts on second down. This is a strategic choice dictated by the down and distance, not an innate ability to run effectively on any and all downs. In reality, running backs have different abilities and those differences should be taken into consideration when analyzing their stats. For instance, shorter and slower running backs are more effective closer to the tackles while bigger and faster running backs are better in larger areas of the field. This is why on first down, short running backs rack up a lot of yardage but on subsequent downs, their effectiveness drops off.
Time
A running back’s performance throughout the course of a game is also important to consider. Regardless of whether a running back is listed as a starter or a reserve, their performance will vary from game to game. In general, the longer the time remaining in the game, the more fatigued the players will be and the less effective they will be, resulting in more rushing yards being accumulated by the opposing team. This is one of the many reasons why it’s important to monitor the clock and stay conscious of the time remaining in the game, especially in situations where the score is close or there’s a limited amount of time left on the clock.
Field Position
Another important factor that influences the outcome of a game is the field position. In general, the closer a team is to the end zone, the more points they will score and the more opportunity they have at winning a football game. Conversely, the farther a team is from the end zone, the more points they will have to earn in order to win the game. In the case of rushing yards, this means that the offense will need to be more effective in order to move the ball down the field and score points. This is another reason why it’s important to monitor the clock and stay alert for situations where time is running out.
Game Situation
A team’s overall situation in the game also influences the outcome. In general, teams are given certain instructions regarding how to approach the game and these instructions can change the outcome of a game. For example, a team may be asked to attack the defense, run the ball, or be more pass-heavy. In the case of rushing yards, the game situation can influence the result of the downs, as aforementioned, but it can also influence other areas of the game, such as the time remaining in the game or the field position. A team’s situation at the time each play occurs is also another important factor that can influence the result of the game. This is why it’s important to pay attention to the game situation when analyzing a running back’s performance.
These factors listed above are the most important ones that determine the outcome of a football game. However, it’s not always the case that the better team wins and in order to accurately predict the outcome of a game, it’s important to take all of these factors into consideration. For instance, if you have a team that’s been instructed to attack the defense and keep the ball in the air as much as possible, the offense will be more effective, regardless of the down and distance. The key takeaway from this is that even though only around 40% of a game is decided by the special teams and offense, it’s still a very significant percentage and one that should not be underestimated. If you’re looking to bet on football, it’s important to understand the basic statistics behind the game but it’s also important to know how to effectively apply these stats in a way that will produce the best possible results.