You have probably heard of over and under betting in sports betting. This is where a bookmaker will offer odds on whether a team will score more or less than the average of their total points scored in a game.
In order to understand over and under betting in football, you have to understand the basics of scoring in football and how point totals are calculated.
What is Scoring in Football?
Like many sports, football is predominantly a passing-and-kicking game. However, it is different in that there is also a scoring system in place that determines the winner of the game. When it comes to the scoring system, many people just think about the single-point touchdown or the overtime period and how it ends in a draw.
But it is far more complicated than that. The scoring system in football is made up of four phases that add up to a winning score. In order to understand over and under betting in football, you have to understand what these four phases are and how they contribute towards the winning total.
Scoring Phases and Their Importance
When a player kicks a field goal (3 points), the first phase of scoring is over. The second phase is the tackle or intercept (2 points) where the defense stops the advance of the offense by either catching the ball or interrupting the pass. Fumbles are also worth 2 points (the offense scores 2 points if the opposing team fumbles the ball, while the other team gets to keep the ball and advance it past the opponents’ goal). After the second phase, the next phase that starts is the next play, which is either a run or pass attempt. This is the phase where scoring happens, which is made up of three different sub-phases: the rush, the catch, and the kick.
The defense can score a touchdown by returning a punt for two points (the punt is either fair caught or blocked and runs into the end zone for a touchdown), or stopping the kick and getting the ball back for a touchdown. A safety is also worth two points when it is caused by an offense committing a turnover (the offense loses 2 points if they throw an interception or fumble, and the safety is the result of one of those turnovers). Like in the second phase of scoring, the defense scores during the tackle phase (the defense gets the ball back and advances it into the end zone for a touchdown).
What is Point Totals?
Once all the scoring phases are over, the final score is determined by adding up all the individual scores achieved during those four phases of play. The team with the most points is declared the winner. The following is a point-by-point breakdown of the process of adding up the scores and determining the winner:
• Touchdown – A touchdown is worth 6 points. This score can be attained by a try for two points or a successful conversion attempt via a field goal or extra point pass. The touchdown is usually announced by the umpire either at the end of the game or immediately after the play.
• One-Point Try – A one-point try is awarded for a successful conversion attempt via a field goal or extra point pass. A one-point try is worth 5 points.
• Field Goal – A field goal is worth 3 points. This can only be scored by a placekicker and is made by attempting to place the ball through the uprights of the opposing team’s goal, using only your foot.
• Safety – A safety is worth 2 points. This is what is known as a “forced safety” in American football. It is sometimes called an “unofficial safety” in order to make it clearer that it was not caused by an interception or fumble, but was rather an automatic safety because of where the ball was when the opposing team’s player hit the ground. This score can only be attained via a safety resulting from an interception or fumble by the offense.
Why Are Totals Important?
Totals matter because they determine the winner of the game! When you place a bet on whether a football team will score more or less than their total, you are essentially placing a bet on whether they will win or lose the game. The following are some of the more common scenarios where totals matter:
• Over/Under – This is where we mentioned that a bookmaker will offer odds on whether a team will score more or less than the average of their total points scored in a game. This is generally accepted as the baseline for over/under betting in football. For example, the Oakland Raiders are currently 9-1 against the spread this season and have averaged 30.4 points per game. If you followed that team’s schedule from the start of the season until now, you would have played nine games and won nine times vs. the spread with an average score of 30.4 points per game. If you check the odds for that matchup, you will see that they are favoring the under (45.0) because the Raiders’ average this season is lower than the 49ers’ average of 31.3 points per game (the two teams will meet this weekend in San Francisco). In general, if you are looking for value plays in football, you can’t go wrong with under favorites.
• Moneyline – This is where you’ll often see the phrase ‘Betting Odds’ used in conjunction with a matchup. Simply put, to bet on a team in the moneyline is to bet that they will win the game with a score of at least (and less than) X points. If you think about it, this is exactly what happens when you miss a field goal or an extra point in football: you lose, but the point spread is the same as if the game had ended in a tie! So, unless you are getting value elsewhere on the board, you might as well bet on the favored team in the moneyline.
What is The Over/Under Line?
The over/under line is the line of betting on a game where you predict whether the score will be higher or lower than the average score of the two teams involved in the game. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 12-1 against the spread this season and have lost just once, which was against the Chicago Bears. In the games where they have scored at least 15 points, their success rate is 55.6% (7 out of 12 games), while in the games where they have scored at least 17 points, their success rate is 63.6% (8 out of 12 games). If you check the betting lines for this matchup (Steelers are 6.5 point underdogs), you will see that the over/under line is set at 7.5 points.
In general, you should look for value plays where the over/under is six or seven points, especially if you are playing at home. You should also keep in mind that if the under team is more than seven points, the spread will likely move in their favor as there is no point in betting against a home team.
What is The Point Total?
Once all of the scores are added up and a winner is determined, the total is announced. This is made up of the combined scores from all of the phases of the game where the totals for each team are added up and then the total for the game is declared. So, for example, in the 2012 NFL season, the New York Giants had 132 total points against the Atlanta Falcons, while the Falcons gained 140 points. The point total for that game was 272, and the visiting team won that game by 20 points. The following season, the two teams played again and the Falcons beat the Giants by a score of 20-17. In that game, the two teams had a combined total of 132 points, with the Falcons getting the victory by virtue of a 20-point victory in the over/under segment. The total for that game was 352.
Why Are Totals Important?
Totals matter because they determine the winner of the game! When you place a bet on whether a football team will score more or less than their total, you are essentially placing a bet on whether they will win or lose the game. The following are some of the more common scenarios where totals matter: