The term ‘over under’ can be used in several sports, but its meaning is primarily associated with football betting. When a bettor places a wager on the total number of goals that will be scored in a particular game, they are generally betting on the over under rule.
The over under rule is based on the concept of variance. Essentially, the idea behind the rule is that, in most games, the total number of goals will fall somewhere between the two sides of the bet. As long as one follows this basic guideline, it’s usually a safe bet. It is certainly not an easy one to master, but many sports bettors consider using the over under rule to be one of the more reliable strategies in football betting.
There are several reasons why football is such a popular sport to bet on. For one thing, it’s popular worldwide, which means there is always the opportunity to bet on games. It’s also a quick and easy game to follow, which makes it ideal for someone who is less than familiar with sports betting or even sports in general. Lastly, betting on football is easy: all you need is a phone and a reliable internet connection to access online books. Not only that, but you can get line information for almost all major sports, including American Football, as well as leagues and teams from around the world. The information is generally presented in easy-to-understand terms, so even a non-sports fan can follow along and get the gist of what’s happening. All of this adds up to making football one of the more popular sports across all types of sportsbooks and betting websites.
How Does It Work?
In essence, when a bettor places a ‘bet’ on the number of goals that will be scored in a particular game, they are placing a wager that the total number of goals will be closer to the number they’ve chosen than the other team will score. If their choice is between 5 and 7 goals, for example, then they are betting that the total number of goals will be between 5 and 7. If their choice is between 2 and 4 goals, then they are betting that the total number of goals will be between 2 and 4. In both cases, the bettor is taking the variance into account, which is the key to understanding the over under rule.
In the first instance, the bettor is taking a large (in this case, very large) amount of variance into account. They are essentially saying that the total number of goals in the game will be anywhere between 2 and 7, but they don’t know exactly how many goals the game will end up being. This means they’ve put a large amount of liquid capital (in this case, money) on the line, and they should know better than anyone what the score will be. In a sense, this is like throwing darts: you may not hit the bull’s-eye on the first throw, but over time, you will get closer and closer. In this case, if the total number of goals is somewhere between 2 and 7, then the bettor is guaranteed to win.
In the second instance, the bettor is taking a smaller amount of variance into account. They are saying, in this case, that the total number of goals in the game will probably be between 2 and 4, which means this particular game is more of a push-game. While there is still a small chance the total number of goals could end up being anywhere between 2 and 7, the chances are more in line with it being closer to 2 or 4 than 7 or 2. In this case, the bettor is still guaranteed to win, but they are lessening the odds of them winning, compared to the first instance. This is akin to playing roulette: you have a small chance of winning, but you are essentially placing a wager that the ball will land on your chosen number, in this case black.
When using the over under rule, it’s important not to gamble when there is no need to. Simply follow these guidelines:
- Choose goals that are likely to occur
- Bet on the total number of goals
- Play only when there is sufficient line activity
- Avoid trying to time the market, as this is generally a bad idea in any type of gambling
- Use proper capitalization
- Only bet with a bookmaker you fully trust
- Know when to walk away
- And finally, enjoy yourself!
With so much riding on each game, there is always the temptation to place bigger wagers than you can afford to lose. However, this can quickly turn into a vicious cycle: you start losing, which makes you feel bad, which then makes you want to bet bigger and bigger, which then makes you lose even more, etc… Ultimately, this could lead to financial ruin. To avoid this, it’s important to keep in mind that there is more than one type of bettor out there: some like to bet big, some like to bet small, and some like to follow the over under rule, which is why they should be respected, not discounted.