What Is Pythagorean Expectation in Sports Betting?

Pythagorean expectation is a statistical measure designed to gauge the relative performance of a professional sports team. Simply put, it’s the tendency for the events in a game to follow the same general patterns as the previous events in that same series. For instance, if you’re making a wager on the Indianapolis Colts, you might want to consider the fact that they have a history of winning most of their games when the Denver Broncos are on the opposing sideline. On the other hand, if you’re backing the Houston Texans, you might not want to get too attached to them since they have a pretty poor record when playing the Colts. The point is that if you know how the system works, you can better understand the results of any given game and make more accurate wagers. Here’s a more detailed explanation of Pythagorean expectation on how to use it in your betting strategies.

How Does Pythagorean Expectation Work In Sports Betting?

While many bettors are familiar with the Pythagorean expectation formula, not many people understand how it can be used in a betting context. To make matters worse, in most places across the country, sportsbooks are legally prohibited from explaining the method behind their numbers more than once in an effort to keep the games fair and honest. Here’s how the Pythagorean expectation formula works in sports betting.

Overall Record

First off, the bettor should look at the overall record of the sports team. This includes not only the results of previous games, but it also includes the teams’ record in various categories such as total wins, losses, and ties. In general, the overall record provides a good indication of how the team as a whole is performing. If you’ve ever won a large sum of money while playing roulette, you’ll have a good example of how the record can affect the odds of winning. The reason being is that the more you win, the more the casino will trust that you’ll keep coming back for more. For this reason, the overall record is the first place the bettor should look when trying to figure out the Pythagorean expectation of a given sports team. To calculate this number, you simply take the total number of wins raised to the power of 2 and divide it by the total number of losses raised to the power of 2. For example, if the Indianapolis Colts have a 45-20 record, this would mean that they have a winning percentage of 0.925. So in this case, the sportsbooks would have to offer an over under of 92.5 for the Colts to win the game. Alternatively, you could also use this number to determine whether or not to gamble on the team. For example, if they have a low winning percentage compared to other teams in their same division, this might indicate that they’re more susceptible to losing streaks. Therefore, if you want to sharpen your betting skills and become a better prognosticator, you might not want to back these games unless the total is very high.

Season Record

The season record is simply the winning percentage of a team in the current season. This is different from the overall record in that it only includes games that have already been played. For example, the Minnesota Vikings’ record is 58-19-1 so far this season which would give them a winning percentage of 0.796. From an overall perspective, this is a very good winning percentage considering they were one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl last year before finishing with a 13-3 record. Nevertheless, it’s important to keep in mind that this number can be highly erratic. For instance, the New England Patriots are an extreme case where they’ve had an incredibly successful season to date, going 16-0 straight up and against the spread so far. However, it’s very difficult to tell what the true winning percentage of the Patriots might be because they’ve had so many upsets this season. Additionally, winning percentages are usually skewed heavily toward the bigger sportsbooks since they have a greater motivation to push the odds in their direction. For this reason, the season record is usually the last place the bettor should look when trying to figure out the Pythagenorean expectation of a given sports team.