Pythagorean expectation is a statistical measure designed to gauge the relative performance of a professional sports team. Simply put, it’s the tendency for the events in a game to follow the same general patterns as the previous events in that same series. For instance, if you’re making a wager on the Indianapolis Colts, you might want to consider the fact that they have a history of winning most of their games when the Denver Broncos are on the opposing sideline. On the other hand, if you’re backing the Houston Texans, you might not want to get too attached to them since they have a pretty poor record when playing the Colts. The point is that if you know how the system works, you can better understand the results of any given game and make more accurate wagers. Here’s a more detailed explanation of Pythagorean expectation on how to use it in your betting strategies.
How Does Pythagorean Expectation Work In Sports Betting?
While many bettors are familiar with the Pythagorean expectation formula, not many people understand how it can be used in a betting context. To make matters worse, in most places across the country, sportsbooks are legally prohibited from explaining the method behind their numbers more than once in an effort to keep the games fair and honest. Here’s how the Pythagorean expectation formula works in sports betting.
First off, the bettor should look at the overall record of the sports team. This includes not only the results of previous games, but it also includes the teams’ record in various categories such as total wins, losses, and ties. In general, the overall record provides a good indication of how the team as a whole is performing. If you’ve ever won a large sum of money while playing roulette, you’ll have a good example of how the record can affect the odds of winning. The reason being is that the more you win, the more the casino will trust that you’ll keep coming back for more. For this reason, the overall record is the first place the bettor should look when trying to figure out the Pythagorean expectation of a given sports team. To calculate this number, you simply take the total number of wins raised to the power of 2 and divide it by the total number of losses raised to the power of 2. For example, if the Indianapolis Colts have a 45-20 record, this would mean that they have a winning percentage of 0.925. So in this case, the sportsbooks would have to offer an over under of 92.5 for the Colts to win the game. Alternatively, you could also use this number to determine whether or not to gamble on the team. For example, if they have a low winning percentage compared to other teams in their same division, this might indicate that they’re more susceptible to losing streaks. Therefore, if you want to sharpen your betting skills and become a better prognosticator, you might not want to back these games unless the total is very high.
The season record is simply the winning percentage of a team in the current season. This is different from the overall record in that it only includes games that have already been played. For example, the Minnesota Vikings’ record is 58-19-1 so far this season which would give them a winning percentage of 0.796. From an overall perspective, this is a very good winning percentage considering they were one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl last year before finishing with a 13-3 record. Nevertheless, it’s important to keep in mind that this number can be highly erratic. For instance, the New England Patriots are an extreme case where they’ve had an incredibly successful season to date, going 16-0 straight up and against the spread so far. However, it’s very difficult to tell what the true winning percentage of the Patriots might be because they’ve had so many upsets this season. Additionally, winning percentages are usually skewed heavily toward the bigger sportsbooks since they have a greater motivation to push the odds in their direction. For this reason, the season record is usually the last place the bettor should look when trying to figure out the Pythagenorean expectation of a given sports team.
The head-to-head record is simply the number of wins compared to the number of losses in a given matchup. Similar to the overall record, this number takes into account both the performance of the team as well as the quality of their competition. To calculate it, you would list all of the team’s games as either wins or losses and then take the sum of these numbers. For example, if the Houston Texans have a 5-1 record against the Indianapolis Colts but they also lost three straight games against the Green Bay Packers, the sum of these numbers would be 8 which would give them a head-to-head record of 4-3-1. This is also known as the Wins Over/Under column in most sportsbooks – you should be able to find this easily if you’re trying to look for information on a specific team. The good thing about this number is that it can be easily tracked down and compared to the previous season’s head-to-head record in order to detect if there’s any changes worth paying attention to. For example, if a team has had a drastic improvement in their rivalry with another team, this could indicate that they’re due for a winning streak since rivals usually don’t keep playing each other without a winner taking all – especially when it comes to professional sports teams. In this case, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the head-to-head record since it might just be the key to unraveling this particular puzzle.
The games backed column shows you what percentage of a given game the sportsbook is willing to make good on. For example, if you wager $100 on the New York Giants and they win, you’d get your money back plus $100 since this is the percentage of the $100 that the sportsbook will make good on. The number can vary from 50% to 300% so it’s certainly something to look into. However, in most cases, the number will average around 100%. The reason for this is that the bigger the games backed number, the more confidence the sportsbook has in pushing the odds in your favor. Obviously, the reverse is also true – the higher the games backed percentage, the more confidence you can have in losing your wager. In general, this percentage will be higher for underdogs since they have a better chance of winning and sportsbooks usually don’t want to risk losing any money on these types of bets. For this reason, the games backed percentage is the second place the bettor should look when trying to determine the Pythagorean expectation of a given sporting event.
As you can see, there are several different places where you can find the Pythagorean expectation of a given sports team. Many books will include this information in an easily accessible place so that you can more easily find the answer you’re looking for. Additionally, some books will also include additional information such as the teams’ average score as well as various other tidbits that can help you figure out the result of any given game. With this information, it’s only a matter of applying the formula and seeing how it works in your favor.