How to Bet on the NFL Spread

The Green Bay Packers are a fantastic example of a team that is always favoured in the spread. They always seem to struggle a bit in the NFL against the spread, but their records are always above.500 on the odds. The one key that I would point to is that they always seem to have confidence in their chances of winning regardless of the spread, and that usually pays off for them. As a fan of the game, you can really appreciate the approach of the Packers as a whole. They never seem to get too high or too low in confidence, and that’s what makes them so consistent.

Another good example of a team that profits from the point spread is the New England Patriots. They are always one of the first teams mentioned when someone is talking about taking points against the spread and usually one of the top picks in any game or contest that you can find on the subject. They are just that good at picking up points in all types of games and are always in contention when the points are being given out. They have a fantastic record against the point spread, and they also have a fantastic record against the over/under, but on the other side of the coin, they do have a below average record against the under.

NFL Point Spread Strategy

You would think that with so much talk of betting on the spread that the strategy itself would be an easy one to follow, but you’d be wrong. The most important thing for the NFL spread bettor is knowing what to look out for and how to avoid so that they don’t lose money. Below I will go over the most common pitfalls that the unwary bettor may fall prey to, along with some tips on how to avoid them so that you can have a better chance of winning your bets.

Don’t Bet On Teams With Poor Win-Loss Records

One big mistake that people make is that they will look at a team’s record and decide that since they have had some success in the past that they will try their hand at betting on them. Unfortunately, this isn’t a strategy that usually pays off, and it can hurt your wallet to bet on teams with poor win-loss records. Some teams are just better than others at putting together solid seasons and the statistics don’t lie; especially when it comes to the NFL. You can’t expect a team that hasn’t proven itself yet to be reliable to pay off on every wager that you put down. If you are looking for a sure thing, then you should probably look elsewhere for your betting needs.

Don’t Bet On Teams Based On Coaching Changes

This one may be a bit more obvious, but people still throw out random and unproven coaching staffs and switch teams mid-season because of it. It’s a total guessing game as to whether these coaching changes will make any difference at all, and there is no way to tell unless you are actually watching the games. You will almost always be better off gambling on the status quo and not risking your money on a coaching change that could very well turn out to be a mistake.

Don’t Bet On Teams With Unsettled Quarterback Issues

There is no question that the quarterback position is one of the most important positions in all of sports, and you would be smart to bank on that fact and bet on the most efficient quarterback you can find. That being said, it would be a mistake to bet on a quarterback that you don’t actually have confidence in. If you have seen enough to believe that one of the candidates can lead your team to victory, then by all means, go for it, but otherwise, you are wasting your time and money on a position that could hurt you more than help you.

Avoid Teams With Fewer Than Three Seasons Of Experience

When it comes to football, especially the NFL, experience really does matter. Teams with fewer than three seasons of experience rarely do well, and it’s generally accepted that you should avoid betting on these teams altogether. As a general rule of thumb, the fewer the years of experience, the more you should fear for your money. If you are not willing to risk it, then you probably shouldn’t be betting on it in the first place.

Use The Points To Your Advantage

One of the biggest mistakes that you can make if you want to be successful as a football bettor is to go against the point spread. It’s pretty simple; when points are on the line, the team with the most points usually wins. It’s as simple as that. If you want to bet on the under, you are going against common sense because the over is going to win more often than not.

Points In The NFL: Everything You Need To Know

If you want to be a successful NFL bettor, then you need to understand the different types of point spreads and which ones you should avoid. The most important thing to keep in mind is that the point spread really isn’t that complicated, but since it can vary from game to game and even within a single game, it can be difficult to know where to begin.

Here is a handy-dandy infographic from that will help you understand all the different kinds of point spreads that you may encounter (click to enlarge):

As you can see, there are seven different categories that you can fall under. Some are more difficult to predict than others, and that usually comes down to coaching changes and injuries. Teams can also be classified by their offensive or defensive leaning. Knowing which category your opponents fall under can help you figure out how to bet on them. For example, if you feel that your opponent is a bit underdogs then you may want to consider betting on them using the Over/Under line.

Which Teams Are The Best To Bet On?

There is no question that you should avoid going against the spread with the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have a bad habit of having games where they are clearly underdogs (like the Monday night game against Houston) and then showing up at the other end of the field and dominating the entire game. Unless you are feeling particularly lucky, it’s usually best to stay away from these types of teams. The same can be said for the Los Angeles Chargers, the Oakland Raiders, and the Tennessee Titans. On the other hand, the New England Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Minnesota Vikings are the clear-cut favourites in the NFL, and it would be a mistake to bet against them.

As for the rest, it really depends on your personal preferences. If you are a fan of the Green Bay Packers, you may want to give them a bit of a lean because they have been a bit unlucky in the past, but for the most part, they have been one of the best teams in football over the last decade. The San Francisco 49ers are also another solid bet due to their star power and their solid running game, but you may want to avoid them if you are a Patriots fan because they can be tough to figure out. It’s all about what you are feeling lucky for at the moment.

Just remember that nothing is guaranteed in life, including winning money on the NFL games. You can still lose plenty of money no matter how careful you are, so it’s always a crapshoot when you put your money on the line. While it’s definitely not impossible to hit on the right numbers, it certainly helps if you follow the right strategy and know what to look out for.