If you are looking to make some money from soccer then you have come to the right place! This article is going to give you a detailed guide on how to successfully place winning soccer bets using statistical analysis.
Why Bet On Soccer?
The majority of sportsbooks in the United States will allow you to place wagers on just about any sporting event going on at the moment. Soccer is one of the most popular sports globally so bookmakers will often open up betting lines on matches involving the world’s #2 sport.
Additionally, since the very early 1990s, online sportsbooks have become a popular way to place bets, and for good reason! If you want to place a bet on soccer without having to go to a physical bookie then you can virtually any online U.S. betting site.
Analyzing The Data
Regardless of whether you are a seasoned sports gambler or a complete beginner, you have to understand the basics of probability and statistics before you start betting on soccer. If you aren’t familiar with these terms, here’s a crash course:
Probability is the mathematical measure of how likely an outcome is to occur. For example, if you throw a baseball at a wall and it happens to bounce back and hit you in the head, that’s a 50% chance of getting hit by a baseball. The same goes for shooting dice, flipping a coin, or rolling a die. The percentages add up to 100% when you are dealing with probability.
On the other hand, statistics are simply the measurements of past events that can be used to predict the outcome of future events. In the example above, we have baseball batting averages which are statistics that can be used to analyze baseball players. They can be used to compare different players or teams and help determine how successful each player or team is in hitting against the other teams.
Now that you are better understanding the basics of probability and statistics, let’s dive into analyzing the data and coming up with a betting strategy that will get you closer to winning some money!
The Data
You have two options when it comes to gathering data for your soccer betting strategy. You can either go old-school and use papers to track your bets or you can use an online database to store your stats. Since we are focusing on short-term winning, going old-school and keeping track of spreadsheets will not be for the faint of heart! However, if you want to be able to access your data from anywhere at any time, then you will need to go with the online option.
Which One Is Better?
The great thing about having both options is that you can choose what is best for you. If you want to be as accurate as possible and want to keep all of your betting activity in one place, then use the online database. On the other hand, if you want to be able to access your data easily from anywhere and don’t want to keep any records of your wagers, then use the old-school method. It’s all about what works best for you and your needs.
Which One Is Closer To The Truth?
As we mentioned above, probability is the measurement of how likely an event is to happen, and statistics are just measurements of past events that can be used to predict the outcome of future events. In mathematical terms, this means that probabilities are always higher than statistics. When it comes down to betting, this means that the data will always be skewed towards the sports book.
For example, let’s say that the betting lines are 3 points for Manchester United v Liverpool this upcoming Saturday. Based on this, we will assume that there is a 33.33% chance of United winning, a 33.33% chance of Liverpool winning, and a 33.33% chance of a draw.
If you’re looking to place a wager on the match, you would naturally assume that the statistics are more relevant, right? Well, according to probability, this would be a big mistake!
Manchester United is 12-3-0 ATS versus Liverpool this year, so we will assume that the team is favored in this matchup. If you look at the history of matches between these two teams, you will see that Manchester United is 47-15-4 ATS versus Liverpool. In other words, the historical data shows that United wins 61% of the time when they play against Liverpool!
In the case above, the probability data would suggest that you should bet on Liverpool, but if you look at the statistics, you can see that Manchester United is actually the better bet.
Another example: let’s say that the betting lines are 2 points for Tottenham v Liverpool this weekend. Based on this, we will assume that there is a 50% chance of either team winning, and a 50% chance of a draw. In this case, the probability data is skewed towards Liverpool, but the statistics show that Tottenham is the better team.
Tottenham is 7-0-2 ATS versus Liverpool this year, so we will assume that they are the team to beat. If you look at the history of the matches between these two teams, you will see that Tottenham wins 64% of the time versus Liverpool. So, in reality, the probability and statistics both show that Liverpool is the better team this weekend!
The lesson here is that whenever possible, you should always go with the “favorite” team and selection in sports betting, especially if the historical data shows that they are indeed the better team. This will help ensure that you make the most out of your wagers and have a higher chance of coming out ahead. In the case of Manchester United – Liverpool, for example, it would be a bad idea to put your money on Manchester United since the probability data suggests that they will lose the game. On the other hand, it would be a great idea to back Liverpool since they are the better team according to the statistics.
Key Takeaways
The moral of the story is that regardless of whether you are a professional gambler or a weekend warrior, you need to do your research before you start betting. Make sure that you understand the difference between probability and statistics and which one is better suited to your needs. Also, make sure that you verify the accuracy of the betting lines before you put your hard-earned money on the table.