The Super Bowl (officially named the U.S. National Football League [NFL] National Championship) is one of the most important sporting events of the year. It is the culmination of the season, and is an indication of the best of American football. It is the largest sporting event in the United States, and is essentially a final series of matches played between the winners of the National Football League (NFL) Conference Championships. In this article, we will examine the history of the Super Bowl betting odds, and discuss key facts about the odds and line movement before, during, and after the big game.
Key Facts About Super Bowl Betting
There are several key facts about Super Bowl betting that you should know before placing your wager(s). First off, you should realize that the Super Bowl odds are always in favor of the home team. This is mainly due to the fact that the majority of NFL stadiums are located in the United States, and many Americans have a sentimental attachment to their hometown team. With the exception of the AFL-NFL Championship game, which is played in Los Angeles each year, all other NFL games are played in cold climates, which usually results in a higher proportion of errors and injuries during the game. Lastly, you must know that the Super Bowl is one of the most popular sports betting events of the year, with online casinos often offering good bets on the game. All of this makes the Super Bowl one of the most popular sporting events to bet on.
How Did The Line Move Before The Super Bowl?
The Super Bowl betting line started out incredibly strong, as the New England Patriots were 10.5 point underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 50. However, the Patriots surprised many people by winning the championship game, 34-29. Before the outcome of the game was known, the Patriots were already 5.5 point underdogs, while the Eagles were 4.5 point favorites to win the game. After the game, the Patriots became almost straight up odds-on favorites to win it all, while the Eagles dropped to 10.5 point favorites.
How Did The Line Move During The Super Bowl?
While the line moved a little bit before and after the Super Bowl, there was essentially no movement during the game itself. The Patriots were 0.5 point underdogs at the kickoff, and 9.5 point underdogs at the end of the first half. There were also no spreads offered on the halftime news conferences, as the scores were always close. Few betting lines were offered on the game, and none of them moved a great deal during the course of the contest. This is strange, as the Super Bowl is typically one of the most popular sports betting events of the year, and with good reason. There is usually plenty of action on the game, and the lines rarely move a great deal.
What Was The Line Movement After The Super Bowl?
Immediately after the Super Bowl, the Patriots became 6.5 point favorites, while the Eagles dropped to 10.5 point underdogs. This was perhaps in reaction to the Patriots dominance in the game, as they were a 38-16 winner over the Eagles in the first three regular season games. The line actually moved in favor of the Patriots after the Super Bowl, and they have remained in that range ever since.
What Affects The Super Bowl Line?
A number of factors affect the Super Bowl line, but the primary ones are:
- The Teams
- The Result Of Previous Meetings
- Weather Conditions
- The Experience Of The Teams
- The Mental Makeup Of The Teams
- The Season As A Whole
- The Opponent
- The Line Movement In The Past
- The Over/Under Odds
- Past Successes In Pasts Meetings
Let’s examine each of these factors in turn.
The Patriots and the Eagles are the only two teams that meet in the Super Bowl each year. They are also the two most recent winners of the tournament, with the Eagles defeating New England in Super Bowl XXXIX, and the Patriots beating the Eagles in Super Bowl LI. As a general rule, the betting public likes to back teams that have already met in the tournament, as they feel that the familiarity breeds confidence. However, this does not always guarantee a win, as evidenced by the fact that New England lost to the Atlanta Falcons in the 2018 Super Bowl.
The Result Of Previous Meetings
A meeting between these two teams at the end of the regular season is usually a very good indicator of how they will do in the Super Bowl. The teams have already met twice this year, with the first meeting being in Week 7. That was a close game, with the score being 20-18 in favor of the Patriots. However, last week’s game was much more one-sided, with the Eagles dominating the game 48-20.
One of the overriding factors that affects the outcome of the Super Bowl is the weather conditions. The game is usually played in cold weather, making it much harder to score points, and making it more likely for injuries to occur. In the 2015 Super Bowl, which was played in Pasadena, California, wind chill caused several players to struggle with injuries, and ultimately, prevented some from playing. As the game gets closer to being played, the effect of the wind chill is usually more apparent, and it has a greater impact on the outcome of the game. In the 2018 Super Bowl, the game was played in a blizzard, which also prevented several players from showing their skills, and perhaps, caused some injuries.
The Experience Of The Teams
In many sports, including football, teams with more experience generally beat those with less experience. The Patriots are an excellent example of this, having gone 24-0 in the regular season and 7-2 in the postseason. They also won the Super Bowl last year, when they defeated the Los Angeles Rams 13-3. The Eagles, meanwhile, went 5-0 in the postseason, and lost the Super Bowl in 2015 to the Colts, 45-7.
The Mental Makeup Of The Teams
As mentioned above, in many sports, experience usually trumps talent when it comes to winning the game. In the NFL, teams usually have the talent to be successful, but many fail to live up to their potential because they lack the experience needed to do so. In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Patriots selected 20 players, while the Eagles only picked up 19. In the 2018 NFL Draft, the Patriots selected 20 players, while the Eagles only picked up 18. Experience matters, even in the mental game. In the 2018 NFL season, the Patriots had a record of 12-4-1, while the Eagles were 10-5. In terms of confidence, the Eagles were more confident than the Patriots going into the postseason.
The Season As A Whole
The overall performance of the team during the season is also a major factor in determining how they will do in the Super Bowl. In the 2018 NFL season, the Patriots lost just one game, while the Eagles lost two. The Patriots were able to clinch the 1st Super Bowl trip in team history with a 17-14 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17. Overall, the Patriots were a much more dominant team throughout the season, and it showed in how they performed. The Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals were the only two other teams to beat them this year.
The opponent is another major factor that affects the outcome of the Super Bowl. In the 2017 NFL season, the Houston Texans were one of the best teams in the league, and they beat the Patriots in the playoffs. However, in the Super Bowl, the Patriots dominated the game, 27-10.
Past Successes In Pasts Meetings
Past results also matter in football, as much as they do in other sports. If a team has had success in past meetings with an opponent, that is another strong indication that they will have success in the future. Since 2000, the Patriots have beat the Eagles in five out of six meetings, including three out of the past four games. In the most recent meeting, the Patriots defeated the Eagles 23-20 in the 2018 season opener, with quarterback Tom Brady throwing for 311 yards and three touchdowns. In total, Brady has now led the Patriots to victory in 20 out of 23 games against the Eagles, which is an incredible.867 winning percentage. This is the highest winning percentage against any opponent in NFL history, and it is a testament to how effective Brady and the Patriots offense has been this year.