The betting lines can be found on nearly every major sporting event, but do you really know what they mean?
The lines are there to give you some indication of how the betting public is betting (and maybe even how the organizers are influencing the lines) so you can make some educated guesses as to how the game is going to turn out. But beyond that, do you really know what the numbers mean?
Here’s a breakdown of what the betting lines are, who’s winning, and what the numbers really mean.
The Setup
In the simplest terms, betting lines are set up to give the betting public a sense of how much longer they’ll have to wait for their money back (or winnings, if they bet on the underdog). Let’s face it, in a world of digital cash, waiting is the worst part. So if you’ve ever placed a bet on a sporting event and wanted to know how long you’ll have to wait to get your winnings, the betting line is the place to look.
Here’s how it works: If you’re betting on a team that you believe is going to win the game, you’ll typically find the favorite team listed as +100 while the underdog is listed at -100. That means if your team wins the game, you’ll get your money back plus 100% of your original bet (plus any applicable taxes).
If, however, your team loses the game, you won’t see your money back but you’ll get your original bet plus any applicable taxes. In some cases, you may even get odds (e.g., -140 for the Jaguars vs. Titans).
Keep in mind: The odds are just a guide. Nobody knows for sure how a game is going to turn out, so you can’t really rely on them too much. What’s more, the spread may not even mean what you think it means. For example, if the spread is -125 and your team is favored by 125, does that mean the public is against you? Or does that mean that the game is actually much closer than you think? (Hint: It’s the latter.)
What Does the Spread Mean?
Okay, so let’s say you’re a fan of the Oakland Athletics and you’ve always wanted to see them compete in the World Series. Naturally, you’re going to want to dive into the betting lines and see if there’s any opportunity to make a profit. (Winning a bet against the spread is pretty cool too.)
Here’s the thing about spreads: They’re a guide. Just like the odds, the spreads don’t necessarily mean what you think they mean. In fact, a spread of -125 doesn’t necessarily mean that the game is actually closer than you think. (Hint: It’s not.)
Take the Atlanta Braves as an example. They’re currently 8.5-point favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League East. If you’ve followed the Braves throughout the season, you may come to the conclusion that this is a very close game. After all, Atlanta is only a few games over.500 and are competing for a playoff spot. (They are currently 5.5 games over.)
Now, here’s the thing: The 8.5-point favorite spread really means that the betting public believes that St. Louis is the better team going into the game. As you may have guessed, this is sometimes the case when the favorite is actually favored by a larger spread (in this case, 11 points). However, as we just mentioned, it doesn’t necessarily have to be this way. (Hint: Usually, it’s not.)
Longer Than You Think
As we stated above, waiting is the worst part of betting. So if you’ve ever placed a bet on a sporting event and wanted to know how long you’ll have to wait to get your winnings, the chances are you’ve come to the right place. (And if you haven’t, welcome! You’ve come to the right place.)
The reason why we want to tell you about betting lines is that they can give you an idea of how long you’ll have to wait to get your money back. Sometimes, the amount you’ll have to wait is longer than you think. (Don’t worry; we’ll discuss ways to lower your winning chances in the next section.)
Here’s an example. Let’s say last Sunday, you placed a $100 wager on the New England Patriots to win the Superbowl. (You can place bets on the Superbowl; just check the rules and regulations first.)
Then, on Monday morning, the Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons 39-33 in overtime. You’re probably thinking that this was a pretty good outcome for you given the fact that the Patriots are a 16-point favorite on the road in the Superbowl. (This means that if you bet on the Patriots, you’ll get your money back plus 16% of your original wager, plus any applicable taxes.)
However, as we stated above, the spread doesn’t necessarily mean what you think it means. In this case, the spread was -16 points, which means that the public thinks the Falcons are the better team. In reality, the Patriots were probably the better team all along. (Of course, this is just one example and we’re not saying you’ll always lose when the spread says your team is favored. But more often than not, it does.)
Underdog Warriors
If you’ve ever been involved in any kind of betting, you may be familiar with the term “underdog.” In general, an underdog is a team that is listed at a negative number in their respective sportsbook. (As a rule of thumb, you can tell how popular an underdog is by looking at how much they’re betting against the spread. If they’re popular, they’ll usually be popularly priced, so you can expect to see a lot of money on them. When a team is popular, you can also expect to see them hit hard on the outside betting lines.)
Here are some examples of popular underdogs:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL): -175
- Chicago Bears (NFL): -170
- Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL): -165
- New York Jets (NFL): -160
- Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL): -150
- Miami Dolphins (NFL): -140
As you can see, many of the teams listed above are competing for championships this year. If you’ve gotten this far without having seen a championship banner above the sportsbook, keep reading.
Going Up
As an avid sports fan, you may have noticed that the lines go up as the games get closer. This is partly because the closer a game is, the more people are watching. Therefore, more people are placing bets. (Even if you’ve never placed a bet before, you may have heard of this phenomenon as a “line surge.”)
Here is a graphic representation of how the betting lines change as the games draw closer:
As you can see, as the games near and the betting public gets more and more engaged, the lines climb. Now, keep in mind that this is just a generalization and there are exceptions to every rule. However, if you look at these numbers, you may come to the conclusion that the line will likely go up as the game approaches. In fact, if you’ve followed this trend throughout the season, you may even get lucky and win when the line goes up.
Shortening The Wait
If you’ve ever placed a bet on a sporting event and wanted to know how long you’ll have to wait to get your winnings, the chances are you’ve come to the right place. (And if you haven’t, welcome! You’ve come to the right place.)
If you’ve followed this trend throughout the season, you may come to the conclusion that the lines go down as the games get closer. This makes sense because, generally, the closer a game is, the more boring it tends to be. Therefore, fewer people are placing bets. (This is also why you see a line drop after a blowout win or loss.)