The 2019 NCAA men’s basketball tournament is nearly over, and the betting odds are in for the final four matchups. The Kentucky Wildcats faced off against the Auburn Tigers this evening, and the winner will face the University of Pennsylvania in the National Championship on Monday night.
Quietly, somewhere in New York City, a gambler is placing wagers on whether the underdog Kentucky Wildcats or the favorite Auburn Tigers will emerge victorious. And if you’re thinking that this is just another case of bookies making a mockery of sportsmanship, you’re right.
After all, this is the same bookies that gave the underdogs of the 2016 election — the American democracy — a fighting chance at getting Trump elected. But enough about the politics. Let’s get to the football. (Though the national anthem may need to be extended.)
The New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles will meet in the NFL championship game on Sunday afternoon. It’s the third time these two teams have faced each other in the postseason, and it’s one of the most heated rivalries in football. But who will win this year’s Super Bowl? Let’s take a look at the betting odds.
The New York Giants were 3.5-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles in the first game of the 2019 NFL season, and the underdogs came out on top by a 21-17 score. The Giants were also favorites in the NFC Championship Game, where they defeated the Minnesota Vikings by 3 points. With 4.5 points, the Giants were 2-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers in their Super Bowl LI matchup. The underdog Giants came back from 18-point deficit to beat the 10-time defending Super Bowl champion Patriots in one of the greatest comebacks in sports history.
On the other side of the ledger, the Eagles were 5.5-point underdogs in their season opener against the Giants. The underdogs couldn’t cover the +3.5 spread in a 24-20 win. The Eagles were also three-point favorites in their NFC Championship Game against the Chicago Bears, and they won the game by a 23-20 score. With 4.5 points, the Eagles were an 11.5-point underdog against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI. The Patriots defeated the Eagles, 17-15, in double overtime.
The lines for this year’s NFL championship game have opened, and the betting public is firmly on the side of the Giants. According to Nadeem Chishti of Global Sport Market, ‘‘New York is the clear favorite to win the 2019 Super Bowl.’’ The over/under for the game is set at 7.5 points, so you’re definitely going to need to place a sizable bet to have a shot at winning some money.
Why the Underdogs Will Endure
It’s hard to believe that after three straight Super Bowl losses for the New England Patriots, they’re yet to win a title. The last time the Patriots won the Super Bowl was in 2016, when they defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 28-24, in Super Bowl LI. Before that, they won two titles in 2008 and 2014. The eight-time Super Bowl champions are 11.5-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2019 NFL title game.
In 2018, the New Orleans Saints won the Super Bowl, beating the Los Angeles Rams, 31-28, in overtime. The over/under for that game was set at 7.5 points, and once again, the public has bet on the underdogs. In fact, the over/under for the entire league has shifted in favor of the underdogs. The over/under for 2019 is now set at 7.0 points.
Back to the NFL title game. The Patriots have won 12 championships in total, which is the most of any team in the league. But they’ve only won three of the last seven Super Bowls. Since 2013, they’ve only won once, against the Baltimore Ravens in 2014. The Patriots’ 12 championships is also the most of any team since 1950, when the NFL first started keeping track of such things.
So, if you want to bet on a team that’s already been there, done that, and wants to prove something, you can go with the underdogs. It’s a long shot, but anything can happen at the end of a Super Bowl tournament. For example, the New England Patriots lost the first two Super Bowls, beating the Baltimore Colts by a 48-28 score in Super Bowl I and the Minnesota Vikings by a 34-19 score in Super Bowl II. But they came back in both games to win, becoming the first team to do that. In their third Super Bowl appearance, against the Dallas Cowboys, the Patriots lost by a 39-27 score. But the story of Super Bowl LII is quite different. With a 17-15 victory against the Philadelphia Eagles, the New England Patriots became the first team in NFL history to overcome a three-game deficit in the conference championship era. The 17-15 victory against the Eagles was one of the most exciting comebacks in Super Bowl history. And the New England Patriots are still trying to put the pieces together. This year, they’re led by 36-year-old quarterback Tom Brady, who has started every game since 2001. In 2018, Brady set a single-season record for touchdown passes with his 45th attempt while also completing a whopping 70.2% of his passes. Even without a crystal ball, it’s a good idea to put your money on the New England Patriots.
Brady’s Playmaking Ability Is Unbelievable
If you put together a great team of players with a great head coach, you’ll have a championship team. That seems to be the case for the New England Patriots, who have won 12 titles in total. But it takes more than just good coaching to win championships. It takes great playcalling, too. This year, the Patriots will rely on their stellar defense, led by superstar linebacker J.J. Watt. Watt recorded 14.5 sacks and forced two fumbles in 2018, leading the league in both categories. Linebacker Devin McCourty is also capable of recording an interception, so he can return it 90 yards for a touchdown. Defensive end Michael Bennett had 7.5 sacks for the Patriots last year while also recording 42 tackles and one interception. Defensive tackle Lawrence Guy is yet another big hitter who can consistently get pressure on the quarterback. Defensive back Stephon Gilmore recorded four interceptions, returning one for a touchdown while also breaking up 12 passes. And then there’s Brady, whose 45th birthday was on January 12. He’ll turn 46 this year, which is two days before the NFL championship game. Brady set the single-season record for touchdown passes with his 45th attempt in 2018 while also completing a whopping 70.2% of his passes. The quarterback is still one of the greatest ever. In 2018, Brady led the league in passing yards (4,727) and touchdowns (45) while also throwing only 10 interceptions. The only two quarterbacks who have thrown for more touchdowns in a single season are the 49ers legend Joe Montana (62) and the eventual Super Bowl MVP, Peyton Manning (50). The competition for the NFL MVP is interesting this year. On one hand, you’ve got the 10-time defending champion New England Patriots, led by 36-year-old quarterback Tom Brady. On the other, you’ve got the 10-win Los Angeles Chargers, led by young quarterback Philip Rivers. And then, of course, you’ve got the 12-win Denver Broncos, led by incumbent quarterback Case Keenum. This year, the MVP award could go to any of these three quarterbacks. It would be a shame to see all these great passing feats go to waste.
Underdogs Have Plenty Of Upsets In The Books
Since the inception of the Super Bowl, almost all of the championship game winners have been the favorites. This year, however, is different. The underdogs are seemingly alive and well in the AFC, led by the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots — to name a few. Since 2000, only the New England Patriots (2002) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (2003) have been able to successfully defend their title. In fact, the Ravens are one of the five teams to beat the Patriots back-to-back in the last 12 years. They did it in 2012 and 2013. This year’s championship game will be a lot more competitive than usual.