What Were the Odds of Supporting Actor Oscar Predictions?

With Oscar night upon us, it’s the perfect time to dust off those Oscar predictions. This year’s Academy Awards could see some major upsets, with many awards going to films that the public had never heard of. Not only that, but a number of these films are phenomenal, so it’s anyone’s game!

Before the night of the Oscars, it’s time to remind you of the odds of each category. We’ll run down the odds for each category and then compare them to a number of prestigious events, such as the NCAA Basketball Tournament or the Super Bowl. Hopefully, this will give you a better idea of how likely it is that your favorite film will win an Oscar compared to other films that could be considered for an Academy Award in that category.

Best Supporting Actor

The odds of this category going to your favorite film are just 2.6% compared to the 12 other films that are also in the running. If you want to make an informed decision, it’s important to take a few things into consideration. First off, public voting is not taking place for this category, so your vote does not matter. In addition, the majority of voters do not even know who the nominees are in this category, so your voice certainly does not matter either. Lastly, the odds of this award going to a Spanish film are 29.2% compared to other foreign language films, which are at 16.7%. Even if you’re not a huge fan of Mexican cinema, the chances of this award going to one of their productions are fairly high. This is mainly due to the fact that most of their nominated films are usually considered for major awards, so it’s somewhat of a “sleeper” candidate in a way.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there is a clear favorite for this year’s award. Voters are most likely to choose Daniel Radcliffe for his portrayal of Jack Higginson in the Harry Potter film series. The five-time Academy Award nominee has the odds of winning this award at 66.6% compared to other contenders. It’s important to keep in mind that this is a category where voter turnout is quite low. Only 5.5% of voters know who Daniel Radcliffe is, which makes your vote even less likely to make a difference. His chances are actually higher than that of some of the biggest stars in the business, like Mark Ruffalo and Will Smith. So, if you want to increase your chances of seeing Daniel Radcliffe in an Oscar winner, then you need to become more well-known.

Best Supporting Actress

This is the category where your vote actually does matter, as it determines who wins the award. The odds of this category going to your favorite film are 35% compared to the 12 other contenders. In this case, it’s important to look at the performances that have been ignored by the academy in the past. If you look at the past Oscars for this category, you will see that it has gone to some pretty obscure films. For example, Marjorie Merriweather Post’s 1928 film, The Good Fairy featured an unrecognizable Myrna Loy, who was at the time, a two-time Academy Award winner. In 1938, the academy gave the award to Katharine Hepburn for her performance in Christopher Strong, a film that many consider to be one of the best British films of all time. So, if you want to increase your chances of seeing an Oscar-worthy performance, then you need to look elsewhere than your neighborhood movie theater.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there is a clear favorite for this year’s award. Voters are most likely to choose Ruth Wilson for her portrayal of Grand Duchess Anastasia in The Duchess. The odds of this award going to this particular film are 64.7% compared to the other contenders, which are all fairly close together. This is mainly because a large amount of voters recognize Ruth Wilson’s name, as she has been nominated for six Academy Awards in the past and has won four. So, if you want to decrease your chances of seeing Ruth Wilson in an Oscar winner, then it’s important to start ignoring her previous achievements, as they are now meaningless.

Best Original Score

This is the category where you’ll want to see more obscure directors and films. The odds of this category going to your favorite movie are 11.1% compared to the 12 other films that are also in the running. If you want to make an informed decision, it’s important to look at the past Oscars for this category. In the past, the academy has given the award to more obscure composers. For example, in 1942, it was given to Tibor Rosenblum for his music in the film, Herschell Gordon Lewis’s The Accused. In 1957, they gave it to Bernard Herrmann for his work on Alfred Hitchcock’s Psycho. So, if you want to increase your chances of seeing an original composition that the Academy will acknowledge, then it’s important to look for directors and films that you may not have heard of.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there is a clear favorite for this year’s award. Voters are most likely to choose Alexandre Despont for his music in the film, The Wild Goose Chase. The French composer has won six Academy Awards, which makes his chances of winning this year’s Oscar at 81.8%. If you want to decrease your chances of seeing Alexandre Despont in an Oscar winner, then it’s important not to look at his past awards, as they may not be applicable in this case.

Best Original Song

This is the category where you’ll want to see more mainstream films and artists. The odds of this category going to your favorite film are 20% compared to the 12 other films that are also in the running. If you want to make an informed decision, it’s important to look at the past Oscars for this category. Like with the Best Original Score category, the academy has given the award to more mainstream composers. For example, in 1958, they gave it to Charles Fox and Howard Dietz for their composition in the film, Gigi. In the past, the academy has given the award to some truly obscure composers as well. For example, in 1922, they gave the award to Raymond Lewey for his work in the film, The Thief of Bagdad. So, if you want to increase your chances of seeing an original song from a film that everyone will know, then it’s important to look for directors and films that you might not have heard of.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there is a clear favorite for this year’s award. Voters are most likely to choose “Always Remember”, the theme song for the film, An Ideal Husband. The song was composed by Vangelis and has been covered by a number of artists, including Édith Piaf and Lucinda Williams. The Greek composer has won five Academy Awards, so his odds of winning this year’s Oscar are 84.6%. If you want to decrease your chances of seeing Vangelis in an Oscar winner, then it’s important to look at his past awards, as they might not be applicable in this case.

So, there you have it. As you can see, there are some pretty big differences between this year’s Academy Awards and some of the other prestigious events that you might be aware of. It certainly would not be a surprise to see some major upsets, especially since this is a very competitive category. In general, the public tends to vote for films that they consider to be “underdogs”, so if you’re not familiar with the films that are in the running, then it might be a good idea to look them up and see what the hype is about. Who knows? You might just love a film that the rest of the world seems to have overlooked!