When Do Sports Betting Lines Explain a Game’s Probability?

As a sports bettor, you will encounter many different opinions about which lines to back and which ones to avoid. One of the most common topics that come up in sports betting circles is the question of whether or not to back a game with betting odds that are longer than 7.5. Here are a few reasons why you may want to avoid such long odds.

Game Overbetting

If you are unfamiliar, overbetting is when you wager more than what is necessary for the game’s outcome. For example, if you wager $100 on a basketball game and it ends up being a blowout, you have overbetted. Similarly, if the spread is extremely wide, you may want to consider avoiding the game all together since there is obviously no chance of you winning.

Long odds can also make games more volatile. If you are experienced in sports betting and follow the trends, then you know that most sports are extremely profitable. However, that can change in an instant if there is one or two big bets that go wrong. When that happens, it can be quite the domino effect as people who have backed that game may lose their entire stake as well.

Trying To Beat The Odds

One of the beauties of sports betting is that even though you have failed to beat the odds many times, it never gets old. It’s always exciting to bet on a game that you think has a good chance of winning. It keeps the game exciting and holds the interest of the crowd.

However, sometimes you may encounter a game with such long odds that it just doesn’t seem worth it. For example, if you are going down to the wire and the spread is around 7 or 8 points, it may not be the best use of your time to back the game. The truth is, even if you do win, you probably won’t win much since the odds are against you. It’s better to avoid those types of games if you want to keep your focus on the more profitable games.

Risk Management

One of the reasons why you should stay away from games with long odds is that they are usually poorly run or rigged. If you back a game with those odds and it turns out to be a total dogfight, you run the risk of losing a large amount of money. It is always better to be safe than sorry, particularly when it comes to your hard-earned money. It’s not that these games are fixed or dishonest; it’s usually just that the bookmaker has cut them a deal where they get less returns on average for these types of games. When that happens, it’s usually because they know that most people aren’t going to come back and play in those circumstances.

If you have a strategy that you follow closely, you may be able to get away with backing some long odds games if the results are exceptional. For example, let’s say you are following the money line and the favorite is an 8-5 choice. If you get two-thirds of your teams right, you will win your bet. However, if more than two-thirds of your teams are wrong, you will lose your bet. It’s not always easy to tell how a game will turn out, particularly since there are so many variables. Even so, if you look at the totals for each team and follow the money, you can get an idea of how a game is going to turn out. That way, you can make a more informed decision about whether or not to back a long odds game.

Game Estimation

Another issue that comes up frequently in sports betting is whether or not to wager on a game that you don’t know much about. Sometimes, especially if you are new to betting and want to win a few bucks, you will be tempted to pick a game that you think is going to be good. However, if you do that and the game turns out to be a dogfight, it can be quite frustrating. If you are going to back a game that you don’t know much about, it’s best to stay away from those that have long odds. You can always find out more about a game by visiting the websites of the various sports leagues or following the #SBATips hashtag on Twitter.

It takes a lot of experience to be able to tell which games have long odds and which ones don’t. If you are new to betting or following the sport blindly, it’s better to steer clear of those that have long odds. Just because a game has high odds doesn’t mean that it’s fixed or that it will be a bore to watch. There are many good games with high odds, it’s just that you have to find the right one.