Which Stats Should You Use in a Baseball Betting Model?

Baseball is a game that really tests a trader’s ability to think on their feet. One wrong move can result in major setbacks – even bankruptcy! It’s always entertaining to watch the TV channel during baseball games, as there are always several well-thought-out trading plays that you can pull off. On the other hand, there are also plenty of instances where a bit of bad luck causes the entire model to fall apart.

If you’re looking to test your skills as a baseball trader, you’re in the right place. This article will cover some of the most important stats you need to know in order to make the right predictions. We’ll also cover the basics of setting up a baseball betting model and how to evaluate its performance.

K Stats

One of the most important things you need to track is the K-stat. In order to understand what this means, it’s best to compare it to other stats such as OBP, ISO, and SLG. A hitter’s K-stat is the sum of their batting average and slugging percentage, divided by their number of drawn walks.

K-stat was created to provide the average hitter with a better idea of how well they’re swinging the stick. One of the best things about this stat is that it removes a significant amount of bias. In other words, K-stat is the perfect stat to use when comparing players of different eras or against different pitching staffs. For example, in 2021 the average major league hitter has a K-stat of.257, compared to.251 in 2020 and.240 in 2019.

H Stats

Another important stat to keep an eye on is the home run-stat. This is the total number of home runs a player has hit this season, counting both leagues. While the overall number of home runs has decreased in the last few years, it’s still considerably higher than previous generations of baseball. In 2021 there have been 1320 home runs hit, compared to 1102 in 1920, 1341 in 1915, and 1248 in 1895, when the season was only 7 weeks long.

The more home runs a player hits, the higher their batting average tends to be. This is because there’s more opportunity for them to hit a homer, meaning they’re going to start hitting more singles and doubles, which in turn increases their batting average. On the other hand, a rare home run hitter with a very low contact rate will see their average drop significantly because there’s less opportunity for them to actually hit a ball. This is why it’s important to track both categories – total home runs and batting average – when analyzing a hitter’s performance.

Mets/Blues/Jays Stats

There are a few other stats that are worth keeping an eye on, in particular, when analyzing the play of the New York Mets. These are the team’s batting average, OBP, SLG, and the wins (W) and losses (L) columns. The difference between these five stats and their average is the so-called ‘net result’. This stat measures the difference between a team’s actual results and their average. For example, in 2021 the Mets have a record of 19 wins and 8 losses, and their net result is 3 wins above their average.

The other three MLB teams that you should track are the St. Louis Cardinals, the Blue Jays, and the Milwaukee Brewers. The only difference between these three teams and the Mets is the order in which the stats are listed. With the Cardinals, you should start with batting average, then move to OBP and SLG, and finish with wins and losses.

Season Stats

Besides the five teams listed above, you should also keep track of a player’s batting average, OBP, SLG, and the wins and losses columns, for the entire season. This will give you the complete overview of a player’s performance throughout the year. You can use these stats to compare seasons or even careers between players. If you decide that a player’s performance in a certain season is superior to their usual output, it could be a signal that they’re about to have a breakout season. You should also track any important injuries or surgeries a player might have had throughout the year.

Runs, Hits, RBI, And Walks

Once you have all of the above stats tracked for a particular player, the next step is to analyze how they perform on a whole. One of the most popular metrics is their runs, hits, RBI, and walks, considered together as the so-called ‘power numbers’. These are simply the average number of runs, hits, and walks a player accumulates per game, and the total number of RBI. The reason why these four stats are so important is because they measure a player’s contributions in the offensive and defensive portions of a game.

On the defensive side, a player gets a hit when they reach base safely. Therefore, every hit a player gets directly contributes to their RBI total. On the other hand, a walk is when a player intentionally steps out of the batter’s box and allows the pitcher to throw the ball to first base. A walk doesn’t guarantee a hit, however, as the batter still has to make it to first base safely, meaning they can still get turned away at the plate. If you want to calculate how many runs a player has actually scored, you’d simply have to add their hits plus their RBI together. This is because a run is every time a player scores an actual run, plus the one that they scored when they walked (since the pitcher had to bring them to first base anyway).

On the offensive side, runs are typically the result of a hit or a walk. A hit scores a run, while a walk forces the pitcher to pitch to an offensive batter, which, in turn, scores another run. This explains why these four stats measure a player’s production in both the offensive and defensive portions of a game.

Strikeouts, Home Runs, And Walks Per 9 Innings

Another important stat to keep track of is the strikeouts and walks divided by the number of innings pitched, with each inning comprising nine innings, or 36 plate appearances. This stat is also sometimes referred to as ‘K/9′ or ‘BB/9′, which stands for ‘Kills’ (or Walks) divided by ‘Balls’ (or Balls In Play, the percentage of all at-bats that resulted in a hit, including home runs) divided by ‘Innings’ or ‘9 innings’.

Kills per nine innings is a great way to compare different players, as it takes into account the number of at-bats a player has and how many runs they score. A high kill rate means a player is making good contact with the ball and getting the most out of their at-bats. On the other hand, a low walk rate indicates that a player is struggling with the stick, or that they’re just not getting the most out of their at-bats. This stat takes some of the guesswork out of comparing players, because it removes some of the variance that can appear from one season to the next. For example, in 2021 Patrick Corbin has an 8.00 K/9 rate, while Jon Lester has a 7.71 K/9 rate, but they both have identical walk rates of 3.71 per nine innings.

One thing to watch out for with pitchers is their pitch counts. Generally speaking, the higher a pitcher’s pitch count, the greater their injury risk. Pitching too much can cause several problems, including arm fatigue and overuse injuries. If you want to keep an eye on how much a pitcher has thrown, you should look at how many pitches they’ve thrown per inning. This will give you a good indication of how tired they might be.

Contact Rate

You should also keep an eye on a player’s contact rate. A high contact rate indicates that a player is making good contact with the ball and getting the most out of their at-bats. This is typically due to a high rate of pitches seen per at-bat and lower swing-and-miss rates.

The contact rate for a player is simply the sum of their pitches hit and the pitches swung at, divided by their at-bats.